Low and Behold the Price of Oil
by Edward L. Morse
After dropping from close to
In the oil industry, the most important new factor that accounts for low prices is the return of surplus production capacity among the members of the
The high prices of the last decade have also spawned massive technological breakthroughs, including in some surprising places.
There are also surprising developments on the demand side. Most analysts expect that once the world economy starts recovering, global oil demand will rebound to its former growth rate of 1.5-1.8 percent per year. But a return to prior growth rates is unlikely. Due to the higher oil prices in 2008, oil demand in
A different story is unfolding in
The prospect of more reasonable growth in energy demand and surplus capacities in
The drop in oil prices also creates opportunities for
The more direct challenge for
The U.S.-Saudi energy dialogue, which
The opportunities presented by lower oil prices should not detract from the important goals of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing
U.S., China and the Emerging Economic Order
The assumption that the end of the recession will restore the familiar global economic system ignores the psychological and political upheaval that has taken place. A vast tide of liquidity coupled with America's appetite for consumer goods had sent enormous amounts of dollars to China that, in turn, China lent back to us for still more buying. Before the crisis, China sent scores of experts to the United States and invested in major American financial institutions to learn the secrets of the system that seemed to produce permanent global growth at little risk.
Economy: Past Stormy Weather and What May Follow
Paul A. Samuelson
The Fed and the majority of the consensus forecasters fear that this expected recovery might be a weak one that does little to reduce Main Street's unemployment. And it may also imply that future private consumer and investment spending will continue to be anemic. That would mean that at the global level there might not be the replay of the old-time drama in which the American locomotive comes to the rescue of depressed economies.
Divine Debt Trumps All
Victor Davis Hanson
In modern America, debt -- whether national, state or trade -- now plays the same overarching role as the ancient Greek notion of fate. And the president, Congress and the states for all their various agendas are impotent since they must first pay back trillions that have long ago been borrowed and spent.
Joseph Stiglitz Left's Favorite U.S. Nobel Economist
U.S. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz has become a sort of rock star in left-of-center Latin American countries for his vocal criticism of free-for-all capitalism. But in a wide-ranging interview, he offered some advice that many of his fans in the region may not want to hear.
The Dollar's Fate, in the Longer Term
There is a most interesting debate going on at present in the academic community about the longer-term fate of the U.S. dollar as the supreme reserve currency for foreign-exchange transactions and, more importantly, for the currency holdings of national governments, global companies and the producers of oil, gas and other raw materials.
The Dilemmas of the Dollar
by Barry Eichengreen
Legions of pundits have argued that the dollar's status as a reserve currency has been damaged by the credit crisis of 2007-9. The crisis has not exactly enhanced the attractions of the United States as a supplier of high-quality financial assets. It would be no surprise if the disfunctionality of U.S. financial markets diminished the appetite of foreign central banks for U.S. debt securities.
Copyright 2009 Council on Foreign Relations, publisher of Foreign Affairs. All rights reserved. Distributed by Tribune Media Services