The GOP on Iran

Here is the one immutable fact of Barack Obama's foreign policy agenda as it relates to Iran: It's over.

The rule book he came in with is as irrelevant as a tourist guide to the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

If the forces of reform and democracy win, Obama's plan to negotiate with the regime is moot, for the regime will be gone. And if the forces of reform are crushed into submission by the regime, Obama's plan is moot, because the regime will still be there.

Politics and decency will simply demand that the world condemn or shun the regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei if they come out on top. Even the most soulless realists will be repulsed by the blood on the regime's collective hands.

Before June 12, Obama's eagerness to negotiate with Ahmadinejad -- ridiculed by his conservative critics -- was hailed by the establishment and the left as proof of his high-minded faith in diplomacy, a healthy antidote to George W. Bush's allegedly close-minded approach.

But now, if the clerical junta prevails, anyone who shakes hands with Ahmadinejad will have a hard time washing the blood off his own hands.

For some reason, Obama cannot fully accept this.

In his press conference Tuesday, the president finally condemned the outrages in Iran in terms he should have used a week ago. But he also kept alive the idea that the current Iranian regime could be a fruitful negotiation partner, despite what has already happened in that country.

"It's not too late," Obama explained, for the regime to negotiate with the international community. He wouldn't even cancel plans to invite Iranian officials to Fourth of July barbecues at American embassies.

That amounts to tacit approval of the bloodshed and fraud that we've already seen and acceptance of the ultimate triumph of the regime. And it won't work.

According to many analysts.

Obama's still clinging to his hope of talking Iran out of its nuclear program. That's why he initially said there was little difference between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, and why his recent denunciations only followed similar rhetoric from the Europeans and our own Congress. He just doesn't want to let go of the diplomacy option.

No doubt this is part of his rationale.

But Obama has also made it clear that he sees the elimination of Iran's nuclear problem not as a stand-alone priority but as one part of his Middle East two-step. His inseparable goal is to also push Israel into a peace settlement with the Palestinians. As an unnamed Iran expert in contact with White House officials told Foreign Policy's Laura Rozen, "Obama is dedicated to diplomacy in a manner that is almost ideological. ... He wants to do some stuff in the Middle East over the next eight years. He may not be able to achieve half of them unless he gets this huge piece of the puzzle (Iran) right."

That "stuff" seems to be some grand Middle East transformation, whereby Obama promises to negotiate away Iran's nuclear program in return for Israeli movement on an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. In effect, Obama would be using the threat of a nuclear-armed Ahmadinejad as a Medusa's head to petrify Israelis into concessions.

Whether such a strategy would have worked is open to huge quantities of skepticism. Now, after what's happened in Iran in recent days, such a plan is simply impossible.

For years, conservatives or, if you prefer, neoconservatives, have said that the Iranian regime can't be negotiated with. Some emphasized that anti-Americanism is at the core of the regime's identity. Some noted that Obama-style "open-handed" overtures to Iran were rebuffed. (Obama may have acknowledged U.S. support for the 1953 overthrow of the Mohammed Mossadegh regime in the hope that such frankness would win him goodwill from the regime. But no such goodwill followed Madeleine Albright's apology in 2000.)

Others pointed to the messianic and conspiratorial zeal that animates Iran's clerical junta. Many invoked Iran's steadfast animus toward our ally Israel as well as its sponsorship of "scholarly" Holocaust-denial and the more tangible support for Hezbollah and others bent on murdering Jews. Iran's efforts to derail democracy and stability in Iraq by, among other things, supporting attacks on American troops is also part of the talk-is-folly brief.

None of that was sufficient evidence for Obama, in part because anything associated with Bush's freedom agenda was deemed absurd and ideologically rigid.

Well, Bush is gone. Obama has extended his hand. And the regime is supplying fresh evidence of the absurdity of his approach.

All that's left for Obama now is to abandon his own ideological rigidity and start over.

Iran Elections

As Iranians Revolt, Their Government Reveals True Self
by William Pfaff

The truly significant result of the suppressed Iranian revolt is that the most important Islamist radical movement in the contemporary world has demonstrated that it has become a brutally repressive dictatorship whose leaders rig elections and beat down clear popular demands for a true election count or repeat of the election itself.

The War Between Civilizations That Never Was
by William Pfaff

An important change is evident in what since Samuel Huntington's time has been mistakenly identified and manipulated as a war between Muslim and Western civilizations.

Iran's (So Far) Revolution-less Struggle
by William Pfaff

Iran's cosmopolitan and liberal middle classes and its students are making a revolutionary bid without intending a revolution. Few think that the demonstrations in Tehran, and now in other Iranian cities, can produce a change in regime.

Hungary 1956, Iran 2009
by Paul Greenberg

Liberty is not something that can be rationed; one freedom leads to another. Iran's demagogue-in-chief understands that old truth, which is why he is so determined to crush this peaceful revolution in today's Iran. All the odds are in favor of his doing just that, but Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has already lost something far more important than Iran's presidency; he has lost legitimacy.

Iran Elections: The Silent Revolution
by Paul Greenberg

This is something new: a Silent Revolution. The huge throng that marched through the Iranian capital last Monday spoke nary a word, Theirs was a silent vigil for a liberty not so much lost as never gained, from Shah to Ayatollah. Meanwhile, the White House and President Obama practiced its own form of silence. Things have changed since a president of the United States could be counted on to at least voice a protest when another people are cowed.

Iranian Regime Change Is for Iranians to Decide
by Mary Sanchez

I find Iran's government structure of vaguely democratic elections and Islamic theocracy almost incomprehensible. However, if Iran's government needs reform, it is Iran's people that must make that case -- and they are, very eloquently and tragically even with their lives. The last thing Iranian reformers and protesters need is to be painted as agents of the Great Satan.

The 'Neda Moment' Shows Promise of Social Networking
by Leonard Pitts, Jr.

Maybe you were there when Neda died. If you were, you saw a tragedy, of course, a 26-year-old Iranian protester gunned down in the streets. But I am convinced you also saw the future -- a profound change in the way you and I will henceforth comprehend the world.

Obama's Iran Policy Is a Bomb
by Jonah Goldberg

Here is the one immutable fact of Barack Obama's foreign policy agenda as it relates to Iran: It's over. If the forces of reform and democracy win, Obama's plan to negotiate with the regime is moot, for the regime will be gone.

Obama's Choice Is Not to Choose on Iran
by Jonah Goldberg

Stop measuring the success of your diplomacy with Iran by the degree to which the grinning, hate-filled stooge of a clerical junta will "temper" his rhetoric about the pressing need to destroy Israel and slow his ineluctable pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Iran's Crisis of Legitimacy
Ramin Jahanbegloo - Global Viewpoint

Increasingly, Iran's divine sovereignty has been less about religion than about political theology. As for the popular sovereignty, it has found its due place in social networks and political action of Iranian civil society

Iran Must Void Elections to Restore Peace on Streets
Shirin Ebadi - Global Viewpoint

People's dissatisfaction with the results does not concern the present elections alone: Many objections were made four years ago when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was first elected president. Ahmadinejad's most important position until then had been mayor of Tehran. He was, however, supported by Basij and Ayatollah Khamenei, the Islamic Republic's leader for life. Ahmadinejad's four years of presidency resulted in people's great dissatisfaction.

Will Iran Look More Like Turkey, or Turkey Like Iran
Nathan Gardels - Global Viewpoint

The effort to forge new forms of non-Western modernity in the Muslim world has pushed Iran into bloody civil strife while Turkey swirls with persistent rumors of military plots against the Islamist-rooted government. The great historical question is whether, at the end of the day, Iran will look more like Turkey, or Turkey like Iran

(c) 2008 TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES, INC.