by Leonie Northedge

Q&A: Ibrahim Mothana, 24, is a Yemeni political activist and co-founder of the Watan Party

There have been two drone strikes in the past four days. What’s going on?

It is easy to see the effect. After the first strike the road between Marib and Sana'a was closed. This was the retaliation of the tribes in Marib. We don't know if this amounts to an escalation of drone strikes, but it is clear this will end with the Talibanization of the tribal areas.

What do you mean?

A few years ago the US was speaking of a few hundred Al-Qaeda members in Yemen. According to John Brennan (the US counter-terrorism adviser), now it is thousands. It is important to understand where these people are coming from. We always hear about a senior militant killed here or there, and with him were 10 or 12 other militants. Who are they? In many of these cases they are either ordinary tribesmen or people who are not fully fledged Al-Qaeda members or do not pose any direct threat to the US. The tribes of those who are killed feel their dignity and sovereignty is being attacked. That's why we see an increasing number of Ansar al-Shari'a, which is a local franchise of Al-Qaeda.

So the victims are all small fry?

When the drone strike was introduced it was meant to kill the 'high-value target'. Sometimes you do have attacks on high-value targets, but those strikes are very few. Now they have the 'signature strike' (where targets are not identified by name, but by certain types of activity). This is what is causing the problem. We have witnessed some spectacular mistakes in past years, one of which was the assassination the deputy governor of Marib.

He was an ally of the US and the Yemeni government. How did that happen?

In Yemen we have a divided army and division among the tribes. Maybe someone provided false intelligence. The government in any case has an interest in continuing this war on terror. It is a cash cow. They use it to get more money from the US and the West. It is in the interest of the government to escalate the problem.

US officials say drone strikes are rather effective. What do you say?

US military posture is a combination of the Brennan drones and the Robert McNamara strategy in the Vietnam War which was all about body counts. I personally feel it is in Yemen's interest to put an end to Al-Qaeda in our country, but I don't think this is the right strategy. I hope the US policy-makers are smarter than that. The US should be humble enough to know that you cannot control everything. It is not always an effective strategy to have fewer US soldiers on the ground risking their lives while you create a plague of extremism from the air, and then leave.

People abroad are confused. Has there actually been a revolution in Yemen?

Even people in Yemen are confused. It seems we are stuck in different kinds of elite conflicts, but I still believe the uprising in Yemen had fundamental consequences that we will be witnessing for years to come. A revolution is not complete in an instant. It takes maybe a decade or two or more. The political deal of February 2012 (the transfer of power from President Saleh to Vice-President Hadi) was the best option available. It avoided an inevitable civil war.

Does that mean the revolution ended then? I don't think so. What has come of the national dialogue?

There is a conference which I hope will be starting soon. But I am actually relying more on the on-going dialogue processes on various issues including the South. This is the first time that we Yemenis are discussing all our issues -- and we are not going to use other means, such as weapons. Many of the issues, including the future of the South, were taboo in the past.

Ibrahim Mothana spoke to Alan Philps via Skype

 

© By Joel Brinkley, "Yemen Faces Talibanization"

 

Yemen Faces Talibanization | News of the Middle East