By Ed Perkins

As usual, my crystal ball falls far short of high-definition. Still, we travel columnists are obligated to produce predictions for travel in 2010. Here are mine.

Good deals.

Overall, I expect 2010 to be another year of good travel deals of all kinds -- at least for those of us who can still afford to travel. Although the economy seems to be showing some signs of recovery, travel suppliers will keep hurting for customers, and their traditional approach will be to offer deals. Typically, they'll try to lure us as much as they can with promotional and "value added" features rather than out-and-out price cuts, but you can expect lots of price wars, too. The pattern will remain as in 2009: Short purchase windows, and the lowest deals will be last minute.

Social media.

I expect that 2010 will be a breakout year for travel promotions through such social media as Facebook and Twitter. Suppliers are always seeking new ways of "narrowcasting" special deals to targeted niche markets, and the new media make that easier than ever before. More than ever, if you're not with to the latest technology, you're going to miss out on some of the better promotions.

Fees forever?

Will we see the end of the piling-on of extra fees and charges for services that should be included in base prices? Most suppliers would respond, "We hope not," because those extras have added some big numbers to their bottom lines. On the other hand, Southwest Airlines seems to have struck a responsive chord with its no-fee baggage policy, and if it continues to gain in the marketplace, you can expect competitors to have some second thoughts. This will be interesting to follow.

Big destination change?

The biggest destination deal of 2010 could well be the re-emergence of Cuba as a prime sun-sand-surf vacation spot for U.S. citizens. Chances for a relaxation of Cuba restrictions seem higher now than they have been since Castro took control. The original refugees who represented such a political force in Florida are getting old, and younger voters seem less adamant. Certainly, the Canadian tour operators would love to sell their extensive package tours and charter flights to Americans as well as Canadians, and they're ready to move into the market if and when the U.S. government relaxes the restrictions. It may not happen in 2010, but if not that soon, at least within a few years.

Nontraditional accommodations.

As I noted last year, hotel costs remain an increasing share of most travelers' budgets, leading to big gains in nontraditional accommodations that can offer lower destination costs. I expect continued growth in use of vacation rentals and home exchange programs. And as I've been preaching for many years, the "opaque" booking sites -- Hotwire and Priceline -- will remain your best bet for really big hotel rates.

Expensive rental cars.

In 2009, rental cars were the main exception to the "deals on everything" pattern. Base rates tended up strongly, and rental companies, airports and local taxing authorities continued to pile fees on top of those high rates. Because the rental car business is driven by the used car market, I see no short-term change in that pattern. As with hotels, the opaque sites are your best bet for keeping costs at a reasonable level.

Dwindling broad discounts.

As the industry continues to sharpen its promotional focus, broad discounts will continue to become less and less important. Those familiar and modest big-class discounts -- , AAA, senior and such -- will become fallback positions, useful only when you can't find much better prices through other channels.

Inactive government.

Don't look for any big pro-consumer government initiatives in 2010. Beyond the recent three-hour tarmac rule -- which may create at least as many problems as it solves -- the government seems content to leave consumers to their own devices.

All in all, 2010 should be a reasonably good year for travel. I hope you can enjoy it.

 

© Ed Perkins

Travel | Travel Deals for 2010