by Jessica Rettig

Republicans will have unilateral control over the redraw of at least 193 congressional districts

Control of the U.S. House can be fleeting, but control of redistricting can help make congressional majorities a bit more durable. And with big state-level victories in the midterm elections, Republicans are well positioned to use the redistricting process to solidify their House majority in 2012 and beyond.

Starting in 2011, states will begin to draw new congressional district maps in accordance with the decennial 2010 census data. As recently as a few months ago, GOP strategists hoped to gain control of at least 10 more state chambers. The Republican wave ended up flipping at least 19 from the Democrats to the Republicans.

With the state Senate majority in New York still undecided, Democrats now control the legislative branch in only 11 states. Republicans are in charge in 21 states, and 17 legislatures are split, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Factoring in governorships and voting majority requirements, Republicans will have unilateral control over the redraw of at least 193 congressional districts in 16 states. Democratic majorities, on the other hand, will redraw 44 districts in six states. Democrats would have had an additional 53 districts to redraw if California voters hadn't given the responsibility to a bipartisan commission in a ballot proposition last week. Of the remaining states, 13 are split in terms of redistricting control; six, including California, will have their congressional maps drawn by independent commissions; seven have only one House member and so no district lines to draw; and two remain up for grabs, pending control of the New York Senate and the outcome of the Minnesota governor's race.

But the idea that redistricting is ruled only by the requirements of partisan gerrymandering is a myth, says Tim Storey of the conference of state legislatures. While Republicans will likely do their best to give GOP candidates an edge, districts must conform with a number of restrictions, some of which limit the advantages of any one party. For example, map drawers must respect the Voting Rights Act, which outlaws minority discrimination; the "one person, one vote" principle; and traditional redistricting principles established by Supreme Court decisions, such as maintaining contiguous and compact districts. Failure to do these things, and others, could land the re-drawers in court, often leaving judges to decide on a redistricting option. "States have to be attentive to a large body of federal law that governs the process," says Storey. "They can't go and max out the Republican districts."

And there will likely be some tension among Republican stakeholders over whether to gear their strategy toward creating safe seats for incumbents or whether to broaden the number of GOP seats by making more districts more competitive, says Michael McDonald, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. A further problem for Republicans involves states like Ohio and Louisiana, which both stand to lose at least one seat during reapportionment. The GOP currently holds so many seats in those states that the disappearing district may have to come from the Republican column.

Reapportionment figures will be announced, along with the general census report, by December 31. After that, most states will have until primary filing deadlines in 2012 to finish the process. Excluding the seven states with a single at-large district, 43 states will redo their maps before then, each with a strategy that will depend on the major stakeholders in each state--incumbents, state parties, and state legislators, in particular.

"There are really 43 different [congressional] redistricting strategies across the country, because it's essentially a state process," says Tom Hofeller, who heads the Republican National Committee's redistricting team. "Each state's story is unique, so it's hard to make generalities--except that it's better to be drawing."

 

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Redistricting Likely to Help GOP | Politics

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