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Debora MacKenzie, New Scientist Magazine
With official deaths remaining relatively low, the backlash against the H1N1 pandemic response is in full swing. Claims range from a massive overreaction by health authorities to a conspiracy cooked up by Big Pharma. But while swine flu may have boosted profits for vaccine manufacturers, the reality of the pandemic is more complicated.
First, the pandemic isn't over. While cases in Western Europe and North America have trailed off, the virus is still spreading in eastern Europe, Africa and Asia. Meanwhile, Europe and North America could see cases rise again, if the flu pandemic of 1957-8 is anything to go by.
By
"They had vaccine but they didn't encourage its use," says Anne Schuchat of the
Even if we don't see a 1958-style comeback, classifying the pandemic as a damp squib at this point would be premature. Although the
"We anticipate that these figures will be much larger," Keiji Fukuda, head of flu at the WHO, told the press in January. Many cases are not seen by doctors, or are misdiagnosed: the CDC estimates that flu directly causes 2.7 times as many deaths as are officially counted in the US.
What's more, straight death counts mask what was particularly scary about 2009 H1N1: that it doesn't just strike the old and infirm. About 90 percent of seasonal flu victims are over 65. In contrast, 88 percent of H1N1's victims have been under 65.
The perception that H1N1 is harmless may stem from ordinary people rarely seeing the severe cases, says D.A. Henderson of the
What about the millions paid to vaccine companies? All the scientists contacted by New Scientist say launching vaccine production at the start of the pandemic was appropriate.
"When a virus emerges from the animal reservoir you don't know how it will behave," says Ilaria Capua of the
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H1N1 Swine Flu is Not Just A Hoax By Big Pharma