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- iHaveNet.com: Politics
by David Francis
What's likely to happen if Republicans or Democrats, or neither of them, get their way
Think the summer's debt ceiling showdown was tough to watch? That was simply posturing and politicking over theoretical outcomes. It may have made the average American's head hurt, but the average consumer's wallet was uninjured. Well, those hazy, crazy summer weeks may soon seem like the good old days. Now
This fall, a congressional "supercommittee" of six Republicans and six Democrats will meet in an attempt to create
At the time, House Republicans refused to allow the United States to borrow more money without deep cuts to spending. They also refused to raise taxes as a source of new revenue. The standoff was eventually resolved and the debt ceiling was raised. Yet just days later,
The
"When you talk about spending caps and supercommittee and sequestrations, it all sounds pretty good and pretty big," says Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "But we have to move into the specifics and everyone has a favorite thing they want to protect."
If Republicans get their way.Throughout the debt ceiling debate, Republicans refused to consider tax increases as a new source of revenue. Most Republican members of the House and
Republicans insist that current
"Cuts in
And while current
If the Democrats get their way. During negotiations to raise the debt ceiling, Obama offered to cut entitlement spending in exchange for tax increases, but Republicans refused. Even though the deal fell through, liberals in
These cuts would not impact most Americans, as most Americans do not make millions of dollars or own a private jet. But Republicans argue that taxes to the rich would slow economic growth at a time when the nation is struggling to recover. If they're right, tax increases proposed by Democrats could negatively impact economic growth, which hurts everyone's bottom line.
"If the Republican leadership continues to say tax revenues can't be a part of the plan, the chances of the [supercommittee] coming up with anything meaningful are pretty low," Horney says.
If they fail to compromise.If the supercommittee fails to make a deal, automatic spending cuts would kick in. More than
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has said that these cuts "would do real damage to our security, our troops, and their families, and our military's ability to protect the nation."
Most of these cuts would likely come from big-ticket programs, like the development of new weapons systems or fighter jets. But some cuts being considered would have a direct impact on military families. For instance, some defense analysts have said that the number of active-duty troops could be cut. Health and retirement benefits to troops and their families are also on the table.
However, Gordon Adams, a professor of foreign policy at
"If defense does this right, you don't have to go after things like pay and healthcare and retirement benefits, which are the third rail of defense budgeting," Adams says. "You don't have to do a lot that's draconian."
If a compromise is reached.It will be difficult for lawmakers to leave the bitterness of the debt ceiling debate behind. But the
If this is to happen, Republicans would have to accept the closing of tax loopholes and tax increases on the rich. At the same time, Democrats would have to accept cuts to entitlement programs. These reductions would be difficult for both parties to swallow. But continued political infighting will only add to the perception that Washington is incapable of righting the American economy and helping the American people.
"Normal voters are willing to tolerate cuts if the deal fixes the debt problem," MacGuineas says. "I can see negotiations going to the last minute, but there's one difference: Economic forces are going to be pushing us to a deal. No longer are we going to be able to muddle along."
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