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- iHaveNet.com: Politics
by Jonah Goldberg
Who among us can contain their excitement? The
By my count, there are 24 people who are beneficiaries of nontrivial presidential buzz: Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, David Petraeus, Ron Paul, Jeb Bush, John Bolton, Bob McDonnell, Jim DeMint, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Judd Gregg, Marco Rubio and Rick Perry.
With a heavy heart, I take it upon myself to winnow the field down for you.
Half of these people are almost surely not running.
Earlier this year, there was a lot of talk about Petraeus running. But then the
Rubio, Ryan and Jindal, respectively the incoming junior senator from Florida, the incoming chairman of the
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and the current governors of New Jersey, Virginia and Texas -- Christie, McDonnell and Perry -- probably aren't running, though they all enjoy deep reservoirs of admiration on the right, particularly Christie, whose YouTube videos are passed around like samizdat. Also, there's growing buzz that Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and a fierce defender of his top-tier contender status, may not run because he's got a big new contract with
DeMint, the South Carolina senator and the
Barbour, perhaps the sharpest political operator with a natural Southern constituency in a Southern-dominated party, could be a front-runner (and a hilarious and adept debate opponent for Obama), but his plans remain murky.
That leaves 11 who are probably, but not definitely, running: Romney, Gingrich, Palin, Pawlenty, Santorum, Bolton, Daniels, Cain, Johnson, Paul and Thune.
Five of this group are unlikely to last long as serious contenders, not least because talk-show and grass-roots popularity doesn't necessarily win in the "money primary."
Paul's issues -- gutting the Federal Reserve, shrinking government, foreign policy noninterventionism, drug legalization -- are the ripest they've ever been in the
Thune will probably discover early that his
Bolton, the famously mustachioed and gruff former U.N. ambassador (like Gingrich, a colleague of mine at the
Cain, the former chief executive of
Johnson, the former New Mexico governor and a keynoter at last weekend's KushCon II, will focus attention on pot legalization. Meanwhile, Santorum, a former senator, will focus attention on Rick Santorum.
That leaves us with a top tier of five front-runners: Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Daniels. Romney is the organizational front-runner; Daniels is the first pick of wonks and D.C. eggheads; Palin probably has the most devoted following among actual voters; Gingrich will dominate the debates; and Pawlenty (vying with Daniels) is the least disliked.
And, of course, all of this is subject to change.
(Full disclosure: Jessica Gavora, an author and speechwriter, not to mention my wife, has worked with Gingrich and, more recently, Palin. My views here are my own.)
Available at Amazon.com:
Boiling Mad: Inside Tea Party America
Jimmy Carter: The American Presidents Series: The 39th President, 1977-81
The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy
The Virtues of Mendacity: On Lying in Politics
Bush on the Home Front: Domestic Policy Triumphs and Setbacks
The Political Fix: Changing the Game of American Democracy, from the Grassroots to the White House
Revival: The Struggle for Survival Inside the Obama White House
Renegade: The Making of a President
Year of Meteors: Stephen Douglas, Abraham Lincoln, and the Election that Brought on the Civil War
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