Redistricting Heightens National Political Stakes for State Races
Jessica Rettig

This fall's voting will affect the once-a-decade redrawing of congressional districts

Every 10 years, the hierarchy of national politics is turned on its head. It's a time when governors and state legislators take control of jobs on Capitol Hill, and when politicians have the ability to choose their voters, rather than the other way around. It's a period of heightened political stakes, when election results affect not just the current election cycle but, potentially, elections over the coming decade. The time for redistricting is near.

With partisanship and gridlock already at a peak in Washington, the two rival political parties each hope to have an edge going into the redistricting process that follows the 2010 census. This advantage, in most states, will depend on who controls the state legislatures, which redraw voting district lines to account for population changes, and who holds veto power as governor. So as Americans head to the polls in November, experts say that they should know that whom they choose for their state seats now could affect who holds congressional seats in the future. "Redistricting determines who's in power," says the Campaign Legal Center's Gerry Hebert. "It's the most political thing that [state] legislatures do."

States redraw their congressional districts at least once every 10 years, following the decennial census, to ensure that each citizen's vote counts as much as the next. This follows the Constitution's "one man, one vote" principle. In theory, redistricting should simply account for population shifts; it nevertheless has evolved into a complex political tool by which the controlling party games the system to try to create significant advantages for its candidates.

Observers recall that after the 2000 census, Republicanshad an edge over Democratsin the redistricting process, which helped them gain a number of congressional seats in the decade's early election cycles. Democrats are more prepared this time around, says Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Both political parties have several groups committed to strategic aspects of redistricting -- from winning seats in the states' chambers to analyzing population data and anticipating court battles over redrawn district lines. Organizations like the DLCC and its GOP counterpart, the Republican State Leadership Committee, work on behalf of the parties to seek the best chances possible for future election cycles.

According to Tom Bonier, the chief operations officer for the National Committee for an Effective Congress , a Democratic-allied group, redistricting strategists target certain states based on size -- after all, the more total congressional seats, the better -- and the likelihood that their favored party can gain control over at least one of the three components responsible for redistricting, namely, governorship, state Senate, and state House. "It doesn't really matter if you control one of three versus two of three, but the difference between controlling none and one is big," says Bonier. The difference is between getting entirely shut out or having a seat at the table and being able to force a compromise, he says. "Conversely, the difference between controlling two of three and three of three is big, too."

States that stand to gain or lose seats as a result of the census reapportionment will also be more highly targeted since their district lines generally undergo more drastic changes. According to preliminary estimates, more of the typically Democratic states stand to lose seats in redistricting next year than those which tend to vote Republican.

Given those conditions, states with competitive governor's races in 2010 -- such as California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, and Michigan -- are high on strategists' lists, Bonier says. In California, though, taking control of the state's top seat could be inconsequential if voters pass a ballot proposition in November that would assign redistricting power for congressional districts to a nonpartisan commission. About a dozen states have already adopted similar commissions to create fairer maps.

According to Ed Gillespie, chairman of the RSLC, the 150-seat state House in Texas -- a state which could pick up as many as four new congressional seats due to population growth -- is also very competitive, as Republicans now hold just a four-seat advantage. In Ohio, where analysts estimate a loss of two U.S. House seats in reapportionment, Republicans need to win just four seats in the state House to gain control.

Democrats also have a chance at gaining a veto-proof majority in both of Nevada's chambers, Bonier says, as well as wins in the state House in Indiana and the state Senate in Michigan. To the tally, Sargeant adds Pennsylvania, which now has a split state legislature, and Wisconsin, where Democrats are defending both state chambers.

The payoff for winning state legislatures and governorships in these states could be huge, given the long-term savings that drawing safe congressional seats could bring a party. According to the DLCC, state legislative campaigns require far less cash than what is typically necessary for a competitive House race. Since redistricting generally creates safe House seats for the party in charge, national campaigns won't need to spend as much to keep their congressional incumbents in power.

The battle over redistricting doesn't stop after elections. How effectively each party draws the lines matters most, and both parties have devoted resources to research in this area as well. Strategy tends to vary from state to state. "Some legislatures engage in incumbent protection, others try to maximize the party's gain," says Gillespie.

This round of redistricting is not only more politically charged but has more information than ever to guide mappers. Experts can use powerful software to analyze voter data block by block to assess the political impact of alternative district boundaries. "We've never had data and technology more sophisticated than we have now," says Hebert, of the Campaign Legal Center. "It's a science and an art as well. If you look at some of the districts drawn, [Leonardo] da Vinci couldn't be more creative."

Voters have power in the process not only by their votes for state legislature and governor but also by remaining involved and vocal with their state leaders once the lines are drawn, says Kareem Crayton, associate law professor at University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. Active citizens can back their party in challenging new district lines in courts, which ultimately decide the final maps in states where redistricting is especially contested.

According to former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, who oversaw Republican redistricting efforts in 2000 as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the national political atmosphere of the midterm year will be reflected in local politics, as many voters typically will vote along party lines, even if they don't follow their local races as closely as the more publicized statewide contests. "There's a national wave that could help Republicans," Davis says. Gillespie already predicts that his party, the GOP, will pick up at least 10 state chambers in November.

Though districts drawn next year will likely remain the same until 2021, voters don't necessarily stay frozen, either in their locations or in terms of their political views. Top issues and population patterns evolve. "Redistricting will help you maybe for the first two cycles," says Davis. "After that, people start moving back and forth, and issues change. People who used to vote Republican all of a sudden start voting Democratic or vice versa. In redistricting, you gotta look ahead."

Available at Amazon.com:

Presimetrics: What the Facts Tell Us About How the Presidents Measure Up On the Issues We Care About

The Feminine Mystique

The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy

The Virtues of Mendacity: On Lying in Politics

Bush on the Home Front: Domestic Policy Triumphs and Setbacks

The Political Fix: Changing the Game of American Democracy, from the Grassroots to the White House

Read the latest political news.