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- iHaveNet.com: Politics
by Jessica Rettig
Specter's loss and Rand Paul's win mean it will be a tough November for the old guard
In the most watched race of the day, the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, Rep. Joe Sestak
beat incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter 54 percent to 46 percent. But pinning Specter's defeat on an anti-incumbent mood would be
too simple, says Terry Madonna, director of the
Instead, the turning point of the race, Madonna says, was Sestak's widely circulated ad that featured an aged Specter almost boasting,
"My change in parties will enable me to be re-elected." Also effective, says John Lapinski, professor of political science
at the
The low, rainy day turnout -- only 24 percent of registered Democrats voted -- didn't help either. "If you get really low turnout, you're getting more people that are more extreme partisans," said Lapinski. "And people that are more extreme Democrats are more likely to vote for somebody that they're sure is a Democrat."
Sestak stuck to the same campaign theme for nine months as the true Democrat who would "shake up how business is done in the Capitol" -- a strategy that may still prove successful in the general election against former Rep. Pat Toomey, the GOP Senate nominee. Capitalizing on the financial reform debate now in
Another race where Washington endorsements had little value was Kentucky's Republican Senate primary. Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who was backed by Senate GOP Leader
Mitch McConnell, lost by 23 points to
Even putting anti-Washington sentiment aside, there's little evidence that endorsements on their own ever make much of a difference, says
Yet, perhaps starting in 2008 with Obama's primary campaign against Hillary Clinton, social media sites like Twitter and
In November, Paul will face state Attorney General Jack Conway, who beat Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo in a tight race for the Democratic nomination.
Though establishment favorites Specter and Grayson are out, two-term incumbent
Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas may still be able to pull off a win against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in a June 8 run-off for the Democratic Senate nomination. A third candidate, D.C. Morrison, grabbed 13 percent of the votes, blocking either Halter or Lincoln from gaining the majority required to snag the nomination. Halter, who was already well known in Arkansas, has run his campaign to the left of Lincoln, pitching her as too centrist and the enemy of labor, which has strongly supported him. Lincoln, who edged out Halter by 44.3 percent to 42.7 percent, has emphasized her clout among the state's loggers and farmers as the chair of the
The run-off -- which will decide who faces
As these two candidates hit the Arkansas campaign trail yet again, they could learn a lesson on good strategy from Democrat Mark Critz's win over
A longtime aide to the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha -- whose southwestern Pennsylvania seat was at stake -- Critz could have been written off as just another Washington favorite, yet his locally geared campaign, which focused on job creation and his knowledge of the district, ultimately put him ahead of Burns by an unexpected 8 points. Conversely, according to Pennsylvania political analyst Jon Delano, the Burns campaign tried to capitalize on national discontent with the
Nobody in the country is eager to side with the establishment these days, but Critz's victory, and perhaps Lincoln's slight edge, could be proof that a connection to Washington isn't necessarily the political death sentence that many had believed it would be.
Still, with their old political bunkers largely torn down by voter discontent nationwide, incumbents and beltway veterans will certainly have to fight the hard fight in the coming months.
Available at Amazon.com:
The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy
The Virtues of Mendacity: On Lying in Politics
Bush on the Home Front: Domestic Policy Triumphs and Setbacks
The Political Fix: Changing the Game of American Democracy, from the Grassroots to the White House
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