Will Debt Deal Cost Obama His Liberal Base?
Alex M. Parker

Progressives may feel like the compromise was the last straw -- but experts predict they'll come back

It's no secret that partisans of all political stripes get frustrated when their favorite politicians finally get in office. That seems especially relevant to President Obama, who was elected after a campaign that inspired millions of voters to a degree not seen in a generation -- and then took office at a time of harsh economic and fiscal realities. The deal that Obama brokered with Republicans to raise the nation's debt limit while slicing $2 trillion off the debt left many liberals feeling that the man they had invested so much hope and energy in yet again sold them out. Will they give him the support he needs to win what could be a nailbiter 2012 re-election effort?

Experts think they will.

"Elections get partisan juices flowing," says Stu Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. "Some chemicals kick in when you get into an election." Rothenberg says that some of the enthusiasm might ebb a bit, but it wouldn't approach the partisan disillusionment that lead Ted Kennedy to challenge then-President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Democratic primary, or for Pat Buchanan to challenge George H.W. Bush's re-election efforts in 1992. "The big difference is that Barack Obama is a figure of historic significance," Rothenberg says. "There's some loss, but it's not wholescale hemorrhaging."

But many progressive activists say that Obama has work to do to re-connect with his base. "If they're counting on people's frustration with Republicans to be the thing that ultimately motivates folks, I think that's a dangerous game," says Justin Ruben, executive director of the progressive advocacy group MoveOn.org. He said that while he was sure his members would vote and support Obama, he wasn't sure their heart would be in it as they try to convince others to do so. "Right now, our members are having a pretty hard time," he says. "I don't think that's captured when you ask someone about an approval rating. Passion is hard to measure. Intensity is hard to measure." The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has organized a pledge drive to withhold support from Obama, as well as any other Democrat, if he supports cuts to Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal employees, a union that strongly supported Obama's election in 2008, blasted the deal, calling it "economic malpractice."

That frustration has seeped into the grass-roots level, with many activists feeling not only disappointed with Obama's performance so far, but also introspective about why their movement, which seemed so strong in 2008, has failed to match the Tea Party in intensity. "The debt ceiling debate definitely had a negative impact on our ability to mobilize people over the past few weeks, even the past few months," says Adam Barr, founder of DC for Obama. "I think people were frustrated that the Tea Party were able to set the rules for the debate.

Ultimately, when faced with the prospect of Texas Gov. Rick Perry or Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann as a Republican nominee, many of those supporters will likely flock back to Obama's campaign, experts predict. But with so many other factors working against his re-election efforts, especially the anemic economy, Obama will need every edge he can get. He may have to work a bit to gain back this one.

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