by Paul Bedard

Republicans are already measuring the drapes in Nevada Sen. Harry Reid's office, convinced that the polls are right in showing that the Senate majority leader is going to lose in the November elections.

But his associates and some friendly pollsters say the way polls have been done is faulty and that when combined with the complicated Nevada ballot that could offer up to nine options to voters, Reid stands a good chance of victory.

Currently, he polls in the high 30s against Republican opponents who are at least 10 points ahead. For example the GOP candidate many think will win the primary, state party boss Sue Lowden, leads Reid 46 percent to 38 percent.

But Reid's team, while conceding that he might not win 50 percent but still keep his seat, are dismissive of much of the conventional wisdom and offer up five reasons why Reid should not be counted out yet.

1. The polls are not fully accurate because while they test Reid versus any of the Republicans running, they don't also include third party and other candidates expected to be on the ballot. Up to eight candidates are expected on the ballot.

2. Third party candidates can be very influential and take votes from candidates. Getting over 10 percent of the vote isn't unheard of and in an anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic year, those voters might steal votes away from the Republican competing against other conservative or Tea Party activists.

3. Nevada allows a "None of these candidates" vote which might also attract anti-incumbent protest votes while Reid's core remains dedicated to the Democrat.

4. With so much competition, Reid doesn't need to win 50 percent of the vote, especially if the "none" and Tea Party options collect some 20 percent of the vote.

5. Reid allies think that Nevada voters who take independence from Washington seriously might stage a backlash against outsiders like Sarah Palin who've come in to rally against Reid.

"I think its safe to say that the eventual winner of the Senate race will assuredly get less than 50 percent of the vote. Pundits and media who continue to focus on flawed polling that only tests two potential candidates are missing the true state of the this race. When the complete ballot is tested, Sen. Reid is in a strong position to be reelected in 2010," says a key ally.

 

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Five Reasons Harry Reid Can Win Reelection | Paul Bedard

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