Some Democrats Wary of 2010 Election Prospects
Anna Mulrine

 

Democrats Worried About 2010 Election Prospects
(c) William L. Brown

Retirements and declining poll numbers have some Democrats worried about the election

In a tough election year, retiring is a time-honored, blame-free way for embattled incumbents to bow out of potentially losing races. But as Congress returns to the business of legislating this month, even Democratic Party stalwarts are already warily eying the midterm elections as they face increasingly worrying poll figures. To this end, the decision of Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut to forgo a re-election bid remains a tricky calculus for the party. Dodd, who has served in Congress for 30 years, "looked at the numbers and the personal side of it and said, 'I think this is going to be a tough slog,'" says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant. Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Dodd has been dogged by personal financial scandals that involve charges of too-close ties to the industry he is meant to regulate. Connecticut State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat who is expected to run for Dodd's seat later this year, alternately has strong polling figures. "His positives are high," Fenn says.

The Republican Party is hoping to change that, eager at the prospect of winning a Senate seat in a state where President Obama took 61 percent of the vote. The National Republican Senatorial Committee promptly fired off a series of press releases criticizing Blumenthal, saying that "the last thing the people of Connecticut need is another 20-year member of the old boys' club to represent them." But Dodd's move is likely to give Democrats a greater advantage in his state. "I think having nonincumbents who don't have to defend the establishment is in some ways not a bad dynamic for us," says Mike Lux, a Democratic political strategist. "I think that it might end up being quite helpful to us."

North Dakota Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan's announcement that he won't seek re-election, however, could have just the opposite impact. Dorgan's bid was considered a safe bet for the Democrats, but his retirement creates one of the best chances for Republicans to pick up a Senate seat. North Dakota's popular Republican governor, John Hoeven, is expected to make a run for the seat, and his chances of victory look good in a right-leaning state where John McCain garnered 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

Democrats say that though they are bracing for some challenging races throughout the country later this year, the timing of the departures means that the party can begin to recruit quality candidates for the midterms. "A lot of them have to make a decision now if the person to replace them is going to get a head start in the campaign, raise money, and get going," Fenn says. And sentimental feelings about Dodd's legacy could help give momentum to the Democrats' financial reform legislation. Beyond that, Democratic candidates will very likely be campaigning on their populist roots, going after the big banks and the big insurers. "That can be a winning strategy," Lux says.

The definition within the Democratic Party of a successful midterm election outcome in the wake of these exits, however, remains decidedly modest. At best, says Fenn, the party "could lose two or three Senate seats and low digits in the House." Adds Lux, "I don't think we know yet how pessimistic to be." The ongoing uncertainty means that it could be a long 10 months for Democrats.

 

Read the latest political news.

 

 

Receive Political Commentary Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner and iHaveNet.com

Some Democrats Wary of 2010 Election Prospects | Anna Mulrine

 

(c) 2010 U.S. News & World Report