by Kenneth T. Walsh
Democrats argue that the midterm election should not be a referendum on them
Barack Obama's name won't be on the ballot this November, but the midterm elections are still likely to be a referendum on his presidency. From Pennsylvania to California and from Minnesota to Texas, Republican candidates are zeroing in on Obama with harsh critiques of his policies, including his controversial new healthcare law, federal intervention in the economy, and the massive run-up of the national debt. They are urging voters to register their discontent by dumping the Democrats.
There are plenty of reasons for the current majority party to worry. Perhaps the most serious is that 4 out of 5 Americans simply don't trust the federal government to do the right thing, according to a mid-April Pew Research Center poll. Since the Democrats control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, that could spell big trouble for them. Six out of 10 Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction, and the rating of Congress has hit rock bottom. Just as important, Republicans and disgruntled independents who are angry and dissatisfied are most likely to vote, while Democrats aren't as motivated. Democrats now hold a 253 to 177 majority in the House and a 59 to 41 margin in the Senate. Both may be in jeopardy. In fact, the Democrats may be in the unfortunate position of repeating what happened in 1994, when President Bill Clinton and Congress, then also controlled by Democrats, got so unpopular that voters, fueled by Newt Gingrich's Contract With America, put the Republicans in control of Capitol Hill.
Obama acknowledges that it's a turbulent year for Democrats. "November is going to be tough," he told a fundraising rally for California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in Los Angeles in April. "It is always a tough race if you're the incumbent in this kind of economic environment. Even though it is picking up, people are still hurting," with the unemployment rate, voters' top concern, hovering at about 10 percent. To lift his party's candidates and his relatively low job-approval ratings, which could pull down Democrats' chances this fall, Obama's latest gambit has been to attack Wall Street.
Some White House officials reserve judgment on whether the fall election will be a vote on Obama. "I don't think we know the answer to that," says White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. "I think that the president has been focused on making decisions that he thought were in the best interests of the country long term. That doesn't always comport to a congressional election schedule. Look, I don't doubt that we will bear blame for not completely fixing the economy or not changing the way this town works, but that's not to say that the president isn't proud of what he's done."
And the White House has a plan to help Democrats. "We have to construct a story about where we were when the president put his hand on that Bible [at his inauguration] and where we are now, and the decision-making process that he's gone through in order to make decisions that weren't always individually popular but that we believe. And I think you're beginning to see evidence that those decisions were the right decisions to make," Gibbs says.
But so far, many voters aren't buying it. The country remains deeply polarized. A CNN/Opinion Research poll taken in early April found that 51 percent of voters approved of the way Obama is handling his job as president while 47 percent disapproved, and 2 percent had no opinion. Fifty percent said they would vote for a Democrat if the congressional elections were held today, and 45 percent would vote for a Republican. The polarization extends to specific issues, too. For example, a Public Policy Polling survey taken in early April found that 45 percent support Obama's healthcare plan and 50 percent oppose it. There is consensus, however, on one issue: 77 percent say the national economy is bad.
"Two approaches." Democratic pollster Geoff Garin says his party will suffer major setbacks if it allows the GOP to portray the balloting as a verdict on Obama and the Democrats. Its goal should be to bill the election as a choice between the two parties and to depict the Republicans as a party of reaction, toadying to Wall Street and other special interests, Garin argues. "At a fundamental level, the American people want President Obama to succeed and the Republicans want him to fail, and that gap provides the opportunity for the Democrats," he says.
White House counselor David Axelrod agrees. "This is not a referendum on the economy. It's a choice between two approaches. And essentially what you see from the Republican Party is that too often there has been blind obstructionism and sort of inflicting failure on the country as a political strategy, thinking that the governing party and the president would take the blame for it," he says.
Republicans, of course, see the political climate much differently. "Washington is owned lock, stock, and barrel by the Democrats," says Doug Heye, communications director for the Republican National Committee (and a former blogger for U.S. News). "In polls, voters want some kind of check and balance on the Obama administration."
In a weekly Republican radio address in April, Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, a top House Republican, summed up the GOP case when he said Democrats are contributing to "higher taxes, reckless deficits, unsustainable debt, and a bleak future for our kids and grandkids."
But it might not be all bad news for Democrats. Historian Doug Brinkley sees a "pendulum swing" back to the Democrats. He argues that if the GOP falls short of making November a "mandate election," which it appeared to do in 1994 when Republicans recaptured Congress after a generation, the bubble of high expectations will burst, and GOP morale could plummet just as the 2012 presidential cycle begins. "Then Obama would have the opportunity to say, 'That was the best they can do?'" says Brinkley.
All sides are still pointing fingers over who is to blame for joblessness. On Obama's part, the White House Council of Economic Advisers reports that the economic stimulus pushed through Congress by Obama was responsible for between 2.2 million and 2.8 million jobs through the end of March and is on track to create or save 3.5 million jobs by year's end. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on April 13 that the economy is recovering slowly but noticeably. Republicans, however, say unemployment in many communities is far higher than the 10 percent national average, and there is widespread fear that the Obama government is overextended and making matters worse.
GOP parallel. How the healthcare law is perceived by voters could be the biggest wild card of all. At first blush, Obama's success in getting the bill passed gave him a much-needed victory and showed that the Democrats can indeed govern. "The American people respect a president who's willing to put it on the line for things that he believes in and doesn't cut and run when the issues get tough," says Axelrod.
Some political watchers see a parallel in the GOP's past use of the weak-on-national-security charge against the Democrats, which goes back to Harry Truman for waging a debilitating war in Korea and Lyndon Johnson for doing the same in Vietnam. "The Republicans had a tremendous advantage on national security against the Democrats," historian Robert Dallek observes, "and if healthcare works well, it gives the Democrats an advantage over the Republicans for many years." If it fails, it will anger many people and add to their "sense of grievance" against the government, predicts Dallek.
Democrats are hoping that at least some of the more than 30 million uninsured people who will now be covered under the healthcare law will reward Obama and the Democrats by supporting them at the polls. But first they must be persuaded to turn out, says Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who advised Obama during the 2008 campaign. And so far, the Democrats' core voters haven't shown much enthusiasm compared with GOP voters. Political strategists call it the "enthusiasm gap." Obama has begun a personal appeal, through E-mails and other communications to 13 million supporters from 2008, all organized by the Democratic National Committee, to energize his base, especially young people, African-Americans, and independents.
Still, in a political cycle where trends turn on a dime, things could shift dramatically several more times between now and November. One cloud on the horizon for the Democrats is the ongoing ethical troubles of Gov. David Paterson, Rep. Charles Rangel, and former Rep. Eric Massa, all Democrats from New York. "It's a problem," says a prominent Democratic adviser who works with many members of Congress. "These are examples of personal excess that turn off many voters."
The scandals undermine Democrats' claim that they are morally superior to Republicans. "The Republicans also have problems, but we're in power," so the damage is greater, the strategist says, adding that, "It's hard to seem like you are the party of change when these things happen." And with voter disenchantment growing, the ethical issue could be one more indictment of those in power that will intensify the anti-government tide.
Available at Amazon.com:
The Virtues of Mendacity: On Lying in Politics
Bush on the Home Front: Domestic Policy Triumphs and Setbacks
The Political Fix: Changing the Game of American Democracy, from the Grassroots to the White House