by Kenneth T. Walsh

On Nov. 4, 2008, a quarter of a million jubilant supporters jammed into Chicago's Grant Park to hear the wunderkind of American politics give his victory speech as the next president of the United States. Barack Obama did not disappoint. "If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer," Obama said to thunderous cheers. "In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people," he added. ". . . America can change. Our nation can be perfected. What we've already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow."

It was that rarity in politics, a truly historic moment. Voters had elected the first African-American president, and Obama had constructed a highly unusual majority coalition propelled by young people and other new voters, including blacks, Latinos, and a huge swath of Americans eager for change. And, with his telegenic family and a passel of veterans of past administrations at his side, he got off to a rousing start. In his first few weeks, the new president took aggressive action to stimulate the economy, rescue the financial industry and U.S. automakers, and keep the recession from turning into another depression. He ordered a drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq and beefed up the American contingent in Afghanistan (and is now considering another surge of 40,000 troops into that troubled country). Initially, 70 percent of Americans approved of the job he was doing, and his favorability ratings, which measure how much Americans like him, were even higher.

As usual with modern presidents, however, the honeymoon did not last. A year later, much of Obama's initial luster has faded. His job approval ratings now hover at just over 50 percent, polarization in Washington is as bad as ever, and much of his agenda has stalled on Capitol Hill. Unemployment is near 10 percent, provoking widespread anxiety in the middle class. Only 36 percent of Americans say the country is heading in the right direction, while 52 percent say things are "off on the wrong track," according to the latest NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll. All this indicates a more pessimistic attitude than Americans exhibited at the start of the Obama era.

Just as important, the nation is deeply divided over Obama's pushing the government into more areas of national life. Forty-eight percent say government "is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals," while 46 percent say government should do more to solve problems, the NBC/ Wall Street Journal survey found. Many say that Obama's spending programs, which were enacted by the Democratic majority in Congress and have created a $1.4 trillion budget deficit this year alone, are profligate. Most Americans still like their 48-year-old leader as an individual, considering him a good family man and role model, according to the polls, but charisma and good intentions are no longer enough. Increasingly, the public wants results.

"The bloom is off the rose," says Frank Donatelli, former political director for President Ronald Reagan and currently chairman of GOPAC, a conservative political action committee. "He has fundamentally misread the desires of the country." Obama was elected to fix the economy and "grow jobs," Donatelli says, "but he believes he was elected to grow government and change healthcare."

Others have a similarly expansive critique. "Promises made, promises kept--and that's the question that a lot of people are having to grapple with as they deal with unemployment, as they deal with job loss, as they deal with losing their homes and bank closures and government takeover of automobile industries and banks and all that stuff," says Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee. "And I think a lot of people right now are sitting there going, 'Is this really what we bargained for?' " Steele adds that the country is turning against Obama. "The hope that everyone had about an Obama presidency has turned into a frustration about the direction that presidency wants to take the country," he says.

The downward slide can be reversed, of course, and Obama advisers say things aren't as bad as critics suggest. "The American people clearly wanted something different--and they wanted change, and I think from the president they're getting that change," says White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. "Now, I give a lot of credit to the American people. They're always way ahead of this town. The American people get that this isn't all going to happen overnight and it's going to take time to change the situation that we got into. So I think that's a good thing." Two positive signs came last week. The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product rose at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, after a year of contraction, and the administration reported that its stimulus had created or saved 650,000 jobs.

But Obama also suffered political setbacks Tuesday when voters spurned Democratic gubernatorial candidates Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Creigh Deeds in Virginia, and chose Republicans Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, respectively. Both Democrats had been strongly backed by the president, who carried both states last year. Better news came in upstate New York, where Democrat Bill Owens won a special congressional election over conservative Doug Hoffman. Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava withdrew over the weekend and endorsed Owens.

White House strategists admit that the electorate's patience is limited, but they argue that if Congress enacts the overhaul of the healthcare system that is Obama's top priority this fall, he will end the year with a big achievement, and his ratings will climb. This would, under the White House theory, enhance his image as an effective leader and create momentum for other initiatives down the line, such as Obama's plans to limit global warming, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, promote energy conservation, bolster the financial industry, and revamp the immigration laws.

"We're closer on comprehensive health insurance reform than we've been in a hundred years," says White House senior adviser David Axelrod. "Seven presidents have tried; seven presidents have failed. He has the opportunity to get it done." Noting Obama's decision to also push for major legislation on energy, education, and other concerns, Axelrod adds: "These are enormous issues that he's taken on at a very difficult time and he's advanced them. By any objective yardstick, he's achieved a lot in the first 10 months." And Axelrod doesn't think Obama's approval ratings tell the whole story. "No doubt there were high hopes and expectations, and I think he is still very highly regarded and people see him in positive terms and hopeful terms."

In foreign affairs, the problems are also immense and in some ways getting worse. Leading the list is the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, where the level of violence is increasing. Eight Americans died in bomb attacks this week, and an additional dozen people were killed in a brazen assault on a United Nations guesthouse in Kabul. A resurgent Taliban is making fresh gains across the country, and Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the senior commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, is asking for 40,000 more troops to stem the tide.

Obama has yet to decide what to do and has been meeting every few days with his "war cabinet" to reconsider strategy. This has triggered strong criticism from Republicans who say he should have immediately approved McChrystal's request. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the GOP presidential nominee last year, said this week that the time is long past for Obama to have made a decision and that he is jeopardizing American soldiers' lives by not sending in reinforcements. But Obama has stood firm against the advocates of quick judgment, insisting that it's best to take whatever time is needed to get the decision right.

Also giving Obama some breathing room is the fact that voters rarely list Afghanistan at the top of their list of concerns. "Politically," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, "he has all the latitude in the world, because the public doesn't know what the right thing to do is and the public knows how complicated this is." The death toll and costs have been relatively small compared with the extremely controversial war in Iraq. "Iraq was black and white, depending on what side you were on," Garin says. "Afghanistan is all about shades of gray."

But, again, the country is split. Forty-seven percent support sending more troops into Afghanistan; 43 percent oppose it. And some Democrats see an opportunity for Obama and his party to demonstrate their savvy and toughness, even though only about one third of Democrats support escalation. "There is still a suspicion that we are soft on defense and not willing to use power to protect national security," says Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a think tank for centrist Democrats. Obama's decision on Afghanistan is "an opportunity to cement among the public the notion that Democrats can be trusted to protect national security," Marshall says, observing that "the whole drama of the Obama presidency is to do big things and at the same time hold together a center-left coalition. This will be one of his toughest tests."

GOP strategist Donatelli sees the choice in dire terms. "If Afghanistan fails on his watch, after he proclaimed it the central front in the war on terror, he will be another Jimmy Carter," a failed president with an image of weakness, Donatelli says.

But Obama advocates say he will get all the big decisions right in the end, and he tells friends that he won't be deterred from pushing for ways to transform the country in a fundamental sense, with government activism as a principal tool. Obama still feels the same way he did on election night a year ago, according to his press secretary. "He didn't want to wake up four or eight years later looking at the television with the country facing the same old problems," Gibbs says, "so I think [he is] transformational in the sense that we were finally going to address things like our economy, that we were going to address things like healthcare and energy that we had put off dealing with because of the size of the problems."

Obama's ambitions and perseverance were on display this week when he signed the $680 billion National Defense Authorization Act, even though it didn't contain all the reforms he asked for. Obama said it was the best he could do for the moment but promised not to give up. "I'm pleased to say that we have proved that change is possible," he declared. "It may not come quickly or all at once, but if you push hard enough, it does come eventually." He will have plenty of other opportunities to alter procurement practices and reduce military waste and inefficiency. But aides say this message applies to his agenda across the board. "What people have learned about Barack Obama as president is that he was serious when he said he would bring change to Washington and address the big challenges facing the nation," says White House Communications Director Anita Dunn. And he has only just begun.

 

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