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- iHaveNet.com: Politics
by Clarence Page
May 23, 2011
Donald Trump departed from the 2012 presidential race, which he never actually entered, in typical Trump style, supremely confident that he would have won if only he actually had run.
That's also what he said when he flirted with a presidential run in 1988 as a Democrat and in 1999 as a
His announcement happened to coincide with
But as we watch the golden glow of Trump's would-be candidacy and famous comb-over fade into the sunset, his joke of a candidacy tells us something serious about the overall 2012 race. He saw his opportunity because Republicans at this late date still have no clear front-runner. Enter the Donald.
He soared to the front-ranks of hopefuls, tying former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in polls for first place, largely because of TV-boosted name recognition. Significantly, Huckabee used his own Saturday night variety show on
The swarm of candidates left behind by their departures can best be sorted into three categories of viability: The TV Stars, the Cult Heroes and the Viable Invisibles.
Category One: The TV Stars have media fame that precedes them.
Like Huckabee and Trump, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would have to walk away from lucrative media stardom to run for the
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania lost their
Although the telegenic Mitt Romney doesn't have a TV job, he's a star after his 2008 presidential race. The former Massachusetts governor's misfortune is to be burdened with glaring flip-flops on such issues as guns, gay rights, abortion and healthcare.
Category Two: The Cult Heroes have passionate but noticeably narrow support. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, a favorite among libertarians, leads this pack based on his high name recognition, although his 2008 presidential turnout never emerged out of the single digits.
Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota hasn't decided whether to run. She's a darling of the tea party crowd who shows remarkably little desire to campaign to anyone else, although with Huckabee out, tea partiers might be all she needs in Iowa.
Moving up fast is Herman Cain, former CEO of
Category Three: The Viable Invisibles.
These are the promising, pragmatic, managerial conservatives who make good governors and appeal to the
With Huckabee out of the race, Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty could have the best chance of winning Iowa, giving him some badly needed help with his name recognition. If Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels decides to run, he probably won't win values-conscious Iowa. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Mormon like Romney, appeals to the party establishment but is burdened by having been Obama's China ambassador, a role that Obama does not hesitate to praise at every public opportunity.
See a pattern?
The candidates with the best chance to beat the incumbent president tend to have the least chance of winning their own party's nomination. At this point, President Obama's biggest worry should be overconfidence.
It's hard to name someone who is more disappointed in Donald Trump dropping out of the 2012 Presidential race than Jon Stewart.
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