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- iHaveNet.com: Politics
by Alex M. Parker
Florida, other states' impatience with primary schedule could lead to an early contest, giving Romney yet another edge
Just like four years ago, the
The biggest beneficiary of this squabble among the states could be former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney the party's apparently enduring front-runner.
The confusion results, as in past years, from building resentment among other states at New Hampshire and Iowa's hallowed status as the first two contests in the nation. On Friday, a special committee of appointees by Florida's governor and legislature voted to hold that state's primary on January 31, despite the possibility of sanctions from the national party. Florida likely won't bypass New Hampshire --
Even if it is punished by the national committee, Florida could succeed in diminishing the designated early states. According to a national party rule, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada would face a similar 50 percent reduction in delegates if they moved their contests to January. (Currently, New Hampshire's primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14, Nevada's caucus for Feb. 18, and South Carolina's for Feb. 28 .) Iowa wouldn't face a penalty for moving its caucuses up (from the tentatively scheduled Feb. 6. ) because its caucus rules technically don't award delegates to candidates until later. The scrambled primary process would likely mean a sped up schedule of early contests, with the first possibly occurring as early as January 3 or even in December, followed by a long lull until the next round of primaries and caucuses towards the end of February and early March.
A compressed primary calendar benefits former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in several ways. It gives less time for challengers to blunt his momentum. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, for example, would only have three months to get his campaign off the ground. Possible later entrants like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and former Govs. Sarah Palin of Alaska and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, would face even more daunting sprints. With his current momentum following good debate performances and with Perry's campaign failing to catch fire, Romney has the best chance to not only win a batch of early, important primaries, but to also slog on for the primaries afterwards. "His campaign is built for long haul, so a muddle benefits him most," said Michael Tanner, a political analyst with the conservative
After Florida's contest at the end of January, the next primaries would come in Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28, though those two states would also face penalties from the
RNC officials don't feel that they've allowed the calendar to be front-loaded. They point to a new rule requiring any contest before April 1 to be proportional, rather than "winner-takes-all." So front-runners won't be able to knock out their challengers early on, as other candidates will pick up delegates from races that they lose. It's one of the reasons why the Democratic primary lasted so long in 2008, and RNC officials say it will make sure more voters across the country get their say.
Political observers can debate whether this piecemeal process, with each state jockeying for position and no national entity able to set a definitive calendar, is a wise way to decide who should be the leader of the free world. In the meantime, candidates are getting ready for a tough contest that will be even faster than they expected.
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Early Primary Jumble Benefits Mitt Romney | Politics
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