Early Latino Turnout Could Swing Vote
Judging from what President
But will that be enough for Obama to win the election? Before we get to that question, let's see what Axelrod said.
Asked about the latest
"I believe we are ahead, and we are ahead particularly in these battleground states that are going to decide the election," Axelrod said. "One of the reasons we are ahead is on the strength of the strong support we are getting among Latino voters, who I think are going to be decisive in this election."
He added that "in the early votes that have been cast already in
Axelrod's assertion surprised me, because - while Obama is beating Romney by a whopping 70 percent to 25 percent among Hispanic voters nationwide, according to most polls - the surveys also show that there may be a decline in Latino enthusiasm to vote this time. I reminded Axelrod about the
Are you sure about these early vote figures? I asked. "Yes, what I'm telling you is that based on the early votes - millions of votes have been cast across the country - Latinos are participating at a higher percentage than they did four years ago," Axelrod said.
Romney campaign spokesman
The Romney campaign says that three out of four recent surveys taken in
As for absentee votes in
It's not clear that a high Latino turnout in early voting will translate into a big Latino turnout on
But if more Democrats than in 2008 are turning out to vote early, as Axelrod says, that would be indeed be good news for Obama, if anything else because a low turnout would have allowed Romney to claim a Democratic debacle among Latino voters.
If the polls are right and Obama leads Romney by 70 to 25 percent among Latino voters, this will be the most lopsided Hispanic vote in two decades.
If Obama wins, Latinos will have had their biggest impact ever in a presidential election. Conversely, if Romney wins, it will be seen as evidence that the Latino vote has been over-rated, and that it's not essential to win an election. A lot will be at stake Tuesday for the future of Latinos as a bloc.
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