Is Ron Paul a Fringe Candidate?
Mallie Jane Kim

After the Ames poll, pundits and the media pay little attention to Ron Paul's second place

Political strategists and journalists do appear to be treating Paul as an unelectable fringe candidate. But is he? Or will some of his ideas prevail in the 2012 campaign?

In terms of raising cash, Ron Paul is not fringe.

The 12-term congressman and two-time unsuccessful candidate for president is a proven fundraiser. So far his war chest comes in distant second to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. He also has staying power, supporters say. "He's got an intensely loyal base, people who are willing to organize to do whatever it takes for him to win," says Paul supporter John Dennis, a member of San Francisco's GOP Central Committee who ran against Rep. Nancy Pelosi in 2010. "And he's also shown that he's got the kind of money that can sustain a long campaign."

And Paul did have a huge accomplishment in Iowa, proving his campaign had the organizational chops to get supporters to the straw-poll ballot box. Many more people, in fact, than he did at the last Ames Straw Poll in 2007, when he came in fifth place with 1,305 votes. This time, he came in just behind Rep. Michele Bachmann with 4,671 votes, tripling his share of the votes to 27.65 percent from the 9.1 percent he garnered last time. And Paul's campaign spokesman Gary Howard says that for them, the poll was a benchmark. "It means we must be doing something right -- we'll do everything possible to redouble our efforts, keep that momentum going," he says. The media's lack of interest isn't surprising, he says, and it isn't getting them down. "We don't really let that bother us too much. We will speak up about it," he says. "But we're going to keep plugging away, and eventually people will have to pay attention."

Paul has also stuck to his guns.

He rightly predicted the housing bubble and the economic catastrophe the nation is still recovering from and he supported pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan before it became popular. It's clear Paul's long-held economic views -- he wants a balanced budget, no increase in the debt ceiling, and no tax hikes -- have found increased resonance among many in America over the last few years, particularly among Republicans and the Tea Party. "He's been proven right on some big issues," says the libertarian Cato Institute's David Boaz, who points out that some of Paul's ideas that were considered outlandish in 2007 are widely discussed now. "It's fair to say not that he's moved to the center, but that the center has moved toward him."

GOP strategists and political observers see little chance of him actually coming out on top, partly because some of his foreign policy ideas, particularly on Iran, are still outside of the Republican mainstream. "He's got a very dedicated cadre of people," says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "And they're very intense, but they're relatively few in number ... It's ridiculous talking about him getting the nomination."

Boaz agrees Paul has a slim chance of winning the GOP nomination, but does not think that is reason to ignore Paul, since he says Bachmann is in the same boat. "To give Bachmann as much attention as she's gotten, and then to say we're not covering Ron Paul because he can't win, I think doesn't quite add up."

Most national polls indicate Paul trails the presumed top tier, though a few place him even with or ahead of Bachmann.

A Real Clear Politics average of recent polls pegs him at 8.8 percent, behind Romney's 20.2, Perry's 18.4, Bachmann's 9.6, and even non-candidate Sarah Palin's 10 percent.

That doesn't mean his message doesn't resonate and supporters say that bringing his ideas to the table has been a huge benefit to the 2012 campaign cycle. "Here's a guy who is actually challenging [other candidates] to reconsider their positions" rather than focusing on back and forth attacks, says Dennis, the San Francisco Republican. "They're not just going to be able to throw out stock lines and get away with it."

Dennis sat in the audience at a one of Paul's speeches in Iowa, and as he listened to Paul talk about the amount of money the United States spends on the wars, he heard some in the audience whisper to each other, "he's right about that." Whether or not Paul can win over the establishment, Dennis warns, "Dismiss him at your own peril, because people are hearing what he's saying."

Twitter: @ihavenet

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