Four Reasons Why Mitt Romney Might Still Win
Robert B. Reich
That's the biggest margin in the September survey prior to a presidential election since
And, remember, this poll was done before America watched Romney belittle almost half the nation.
So I haven't been surprised by all the calls I've been getting lately from my inside-the-Beltway friends telling me "Romney's toast."
Hold it. Rumors of Romney's demise are premature for at least four reasons.
First, between now and
Economic predictions are always hazardous, but with gas prices rising, corporate profits shrinking, most of
Second, between now and
It's commonly thought Obama will win the debates handily. He has a deserved reputation for eloquence. But that reputation didn't come from his debate performance, and the expectation he'll win may be very wrong -- and could work against him.
Yes, Romney is an automaton. But when the dials are set properly, Romney can give a good imitation of a human engaged in sharp debate. He did remarkably well in the Republican primary debates.
Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn't been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them.
Third, during the final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. The gusher will be coming not just from the Romney campaign and Romney's super PACs, but also from other super PACs aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and nonprofit "social welfare" organizations like the
Hundreds of millions of dollars will be dumped into TV and radio spots.
Some of the money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives -- to computerized targeting of voters likely to support Romney, phone banks and door-to-door canvassing to make sure they vote, and vans to bring them to the polling stations.
It's an easy bet these Romney and anti-Obama forces will far outspend Obama and his allies. I've heard two-to-one. The race is still close enough that a comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the difference -- which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to get to polling stations can be critical.
Fourth and finally, as it's displayed before, the
Republicans haven't been able to document a rise in voter fraud in recent years. They've manufactured the problem in order to give a patina of legitimacy to these efforts. And what about those Diebold voting machines?
For these reasons, don't for a moment believe Romney is "toast." There are still many weeks between now and
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