by Paul Bedard

More than in 1994, voters are ready for the election

Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut just sent us an E-mail that is making Republicans cheer and Democrats sick. In Pew's polling, he says, the much-talked about GOP enthusiasm edge over Democrats is turning into a sizable voter turnout advantage, one even bigger than in 1994 when conservatives shocked Washington and took control of the House and Senate.

The bottom line in his poll: Republicans by a huge margin think their party will do better in the fall elections than the Democrats and they are ready to make sure it happens. Here's Kohut's E-mail and links to his polling:

"With four months to go before Election Day, voting intentions for the House remain closely divided, and neither party has gained or lost much ground over the course of 2010. However, Republicans are much more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats. This could translate into a sizable turnout advantage for the GOP in November that could transform an even race among registered voters into a solid victory for the Republicans.

Fully 56% of Republican voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections. That is nearly double the percentage of GOP voters that expressed increased enthusiasm in June 2006 and surpasses the percentage of Republicans saying this in October 1994, near the end of that historic campaign. Enthusiasm among Democratic voters overall is on par with levels in 2006, but fewer liberal Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting than did so four years ago.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 16-20 among 1,802 adults and 1,496 registered voters reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that Republicans have the advantage among the age group most committed to voting this fall - those 50 and older. In contrast, Democrats have a substantial advantage among the least engaged group of voters - young people.

The survey also finds:

-- Voters point to national issues - over a range of other factors - as the biggest influence on their vote for Congress this year. Currently, 38% cite national issues as most important, which equals the highest level in any midterm election since Pew Research began asking the question in 1994.

-- Anti-incumbent sentiment also remains at record levels, with about a third of voters (34%) saying they would not like to see their member of Congress reelected this November.

-- Fully 72% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters expect that the GOP will do better than it has in recent elections. Democrats are far less confident, though not overly pessimistic: Nearly half of Democratic voters (48%) expect the party to do about the same this fall as in recent elections, while 29% expect it to do better.

-- The optimism of Republican voters about their party's chances this fall is one of several factors boosting their enthusiasm about voting. Among the others - strongly negative views of Barack Obama, party control of Congress, and the Tea Party movement.

-- Despite the Republican Party's favorable electoral prospects, its image with the public is still relatively weak. Even among GOP voters, nearly as many disapprove as approve of the way Republican congressional leaders are handling their jobs.

For a direct link to the full report, go to http://people-press.org/report/630/. This survey is for immediate release and is available on our website, http://people-press.org/."

 

Available at Amazon.com:

The Atlantic and Its Enemies: A History of the Cold War

The Feminine Mystique

The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy

The Virtues of Mendacity: On Lying in Politics

Bush on the Home Front: Domestic Policy Triumphs and Setbacks

The Political Fix: Changing the Game of American Democracy, from the Grassroots to the White House

 

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2010 Elections: GOP Has Sizable Enthusiasm and Turnout Advantage | Politics

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