by Kenneth T. Walsh

President Obama's approval ratings (c) Jennifer Kohnke
Obama's Approval Ratings (© Jennifer Kohnke)

The threat of terrorism places another urgent item on the president's already enormous agenda

President Obama thought he had problems in 2009. But 2010 could be tougher.

One reason is that an issue that had seemed dormant -- terrorism -- suddenly erupted again when Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab allegedly tried to blow up an airplane over Detroit on Christmas Day. The attempt failed, but the incident showed that the terrorist threat remains real and that airline security can be shockingly weak. Obama, vacationing in Hawaii, told reporters that his administration had begun "a full investigation" and urged Americans to be both "confident" and "vigilant." He declared, "We will continue to use every element of our national power to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat the violent extremists who threaten us." Later, he conceded that the incident represented "systemic failure" and promised that his administration would do better.

All this represented an attempt by Obama to show that he was engaged and ready to protect the homeland. He knows that the image of being weak on defense has been a Democratic vulnerability and that the incident could raise new doubts.

More broadly, the attempted bombing placed still another urgent issue on Obama's already enormous agenda. First, he hopes to get healthcare legislation through Congress quickly, but the House and Senate must reconcile different approaches to the issue. And even if they do, as expected, Republicans plan to make it a campaign issue in November. GOP strategists plan to assault Democrats and Obama as advocates of higher taxes, too much government activism, and crippling deficits. Clearly, healthcare has deepened the partisan schism. The Senate bill passed 60 to 39 without a single Republican vote on Christmas Eve. Earlier, the House passed its version with only one GOP supporter. So far, the public sides with the GOP: A Quinnipiac University poll in late December found that 53 percent of voters disapproved of the Congress's direction on healthcare and only 36 percent supported it.

White House strategists say the healthcare overhaul bill will find favor with voters once the president and congressional Democrats explain it more clearly. Obama argues that his proposals will make healthcare more affordable, limit unpopular insurance company practices such as refusing coverage for those with pre-existing conditions, and cover millions who are now uninsured. "This is somebody who believed that for a long time we hadn't addressed the problems that our society was facing, and to do that we were going to have to make some tough decisions," says White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.

Adds another White House official: "The president has done a series of very difficult things" during his first year, including healthcare and "bringing the economy back from the brink" with the $787 billion stimulus bill and bailouts of the financial and auto industries. In foreign policy, he is phasing out U.S. participation in Iraq but also escalating the war in Afghanistan by sending in an additional 30,000 troops while announcing planned withdrawals there.

Obama also intends to ask Congress to revamp energy laws to limit climate change and promote a "green," more energy-efficient economy, and he will again face a wall of GOP opposition.

Probably the biggest challenge will be lowering the unemployment rate, now hovering at 10 percent nationally with higher rates in many cities and states. Aides say Obama will make job creation his first priority once healthcare is resolved, and he hopes to focus on joblessness as the principal theme of his State of the Union address. Among the ideas under consideration are more federal assistance to small businesses, additional billions of dollars for infrastructure, and more aid to homeowners to make their homes more energy efficient.

As political analyst Rhodes Cook points out, Obama's approval rating has dropped further than that of any other newly elected president, at least since Gallup began tracking such things in the late 1930s. It dropped 21 points, from 68 percent approval in January to 47 percent in early December. No other president's ratings have declined more than 10 points in his first year.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas says the new year may reflect " 'voter remorse' following the election of a president who made promises too big and had too little executive experience or the 'know-how' to make decisions to get the economy back on track." That remains to be seen. But certainly, 2010 could mark a rebuff of what Obama used to call "change you can believe in."

 

Receive our political analysis by email by subscribing here



2010 Brings Bigger Problems for Obama | Kenneth T. Walsh

© Tribune Media Services