RSSSuper Bowl Stock Market Theory
While there’s no reason to believe that a professional football game should have any connection to the stock market, only a hand full of indicators are better known on Wall Street than the Super Bowl Theory.
The Super Bowl indicator is based on the belief that a victory by an NFC team or an original (pre-1970 merger) NFL team — the Browns, Colts, and Steelers — points to a bullish market the following year. An AFC victory signals a bearish drop in the market.
Hence, last season not only was I cheering for the Giants as a fan, but my portfolio was standing right by my side cheering on the New York Giants during Super Bowl XLII.
With the Giants victory over the Patriots, my portfolio and I were anticipating a big market rally.
In February -- to our disdain -- the markets headed south. From March to mid-May, the markets started gathering steam and it seemed as if this illogical theory would prove correct yet once again.
Alas, the Super Bowl Market Theory was no match for the price of gas, the credit crisis and ensuing meltdown in financial services, and the economic turmoil.
The Super Bowl Market Theory was a major bust in 2008 as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4,488.43 points from 13,264.82 (Jan 1, 2008) to 8,776.39 (December 31, 2008).
Heading into Super Bowl XLIII the Super Bowl Market Theory would have predicted an up year on the markets as both teams were on the side of an up year. The Arizona Cardinals as the NFC team and the Pittsburgh Steelers an Old NFL team.
Despite an exciting come from behind 27-23 victory by the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, the financial crisis looks to supercede the Super Bowl Market Theory (and any other theory for that matter).
However, their may be a glimmer of hope to the theory being correct in 2009 as the markets may be closing out the 1st quarter of 2009 on a positive note.
Perhaps, a refined theory will emerge this year -- the Steelers Super Bowl Victory Market Theory.
In the Steelers previous 5 Super Bowl victories (Super Bowls IX, X, XIII, XIV, XL), the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had some nice gains after a Steelers Super Bowl Victory.
Who knows, if the Steelers Super Bowl Victory Market Theory holds true, we may all become Steelers fans. The Steelers are the only multi-Super Bowl Victors to be a correct indicator of the theory. Sorry Cowboys & 49ers fans.
Given the state of the economy the past year, it may also be a good time not to be a Patriots fan.
Super Bowl Market Theory has been an accurate indicator 34 times.
Absolutely no sound logic exists to connect the result of the Super Bowl to the performance of the stock market. Yet, out of the thousands of market indicators, the Super Bowl Market theory is one of the most accurate.
Correct 34 out of 42 times, the Super Bowl Market Theory has been on the money 84.9 % of the time.
Super Bowl Market Theory and Super Bowl Results
Year | Super Bowl | Dow Jones | Close Indicator | Winner | |
1967 | I | 905.11 | Up | Packers (NFL) | |
1968 | II | 943.75 | Up | Packers (NFL) | |
1969 | III | 800.36 | Down | Jets (AFL) | |
1970 | IV | 838.92 | Up | Chiefs (AFL)* | |
1971 | V | 890.20 | Up | Colts (Old NFL) | |
1972 | VI | 1,020.02 | Up | Cowboys (NFC) | |
1973 | VII | 850.38 | Down | Dolphins (AFC) | |
1974 | VIII | 815.24 | Down | Dolphins (AFC) | |
1975 | IX | 852.41 | Up | Steelers (Old NFL) | |
1976 | X | 1,004.65 | Up | Steelers (Old NFL) | |
1977 | XI | 831.17 | Down | Raiders (AFC) | |
1978 | XII | 805.01 | Down | Cowboys (NFC)* | |
1979 | XIII | 838.74 | Up | Steelers (Old NFL) | |
1980 | XIV | 963.99 | Up | Steelers (Old NFL) | |
1981 | XV | 875.00 | Down | Raiders (AFC) | |
1982 | XVI | 1,046.55 | Up | 49ers (NFC) | |
1983 | XVII | 1,258.64 | Up | Redskins (NFC) | |
1984 | XVIII | 1,211.57 | Down | Raiders (AFC) | |
1985 | XIX | 1,546.67 | Up | 49ers (NFC) | |
1986 | XX | 1,895.95 | Up | Bears (NFC) | |
1987 | XXI | 1,938.83 | Up | Giants (NFC) | |
1988 | XXII | 2,168.57 | Up | Redskins (NFC) | |
1989 | XXIII | 2,753.20 | Up | 49ers (NFC) | |
1990 | XXIV | 2,633.66 | Down | 49ers (NFC)* | |
1991 | XXV | 3,168.83 | Up | Giants (NFC) | |
1992 | XXVI | 3,301.11 | Up | Redskins (NFC) | |
1993 | XXVII | 3,754.09 | Up | Cowboys (NFC) | |
1994 | XXVIII | 3,834.44 | Up | Cowboys (NFC) | |
1995 | XXIX | 5,117.12 | Up | 49ers (NFC) | |
1996 | XXX | 6,448.27 | Up | Cowboys (NFC) | |
1997 | XXXI | 7,908.25 | Up | Packers (NFC) | |
1998 | XXXII | 9,181.43 | Up | Broncos (AFC)* | |
1999 | XXXIII | 11,497.12 | Up | Broncos (AFC)* | |
2000 | XXXIV | 10,786.85 | Down | Rams (NFC)* | |
2001 | XXXV | 10,021.50 | Down | Ravens (AFC) | |
2002 | XXXVI | 8,341.63 | Down | Patriots (AFC) | |
2003 | XXXVII | 10,453.82 | Up | Buccaneers (NFC) | |
2004 | XXXVIII | 10,783.01 | Up | Patriots (AFC)* | |
2005 | XXXIX | 10,717.50 | Down | Patriots (AFC) | |
2006 | XL | 12,463.15 | Up | Steelers (Old NFL) | |
2007 | XLI | 13,264.82 | Up | Colts (Old NFL) | |
2008 | XLII | 8,776.39 | Down | Giants (NFC)* | |
2009 | XLIII | 10,428.05 | Up | Steelers (Old NFL) | |
2010 | XLIV | 11,577.51 | Up | Saints (NFC) | |
2011 | XLV | 12,217.56 | Up | Packers (NFC) | |
* incorrect
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