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Of course, almost all of this analysis is based on polls taken before the end of Obama's trip -- a serious
case of premature pontification.
But that didn't stop many in the media from weighing in, building edifices of soaring opinion on the shakiest of data.
By July 23, four days before the end of the trip, U.S. News and World Report's Michael Barone had seen enough to render his bounce-analysis: "The assumption among most observers seems to be that Barack Obama will get a bounce in the polls from his trip to Afghanistan and Iraq, the Middle East, and Western Europe. But it's not apparent in the polls that have come in to date."
He doesn't say who the "most observers" are that made this "assumption." And while he cites several polls and lets us know that he puts "more weight on the Rasmussen poll," he doesn't say why. Perhaps he likes that Rasmussen polls "likely voters" while others, such as Gallup, poll "registered voters." He does however advise: "Stay tuned. I don't think the voters' decision-making process is complete yet." I'll make a note of that.
Fox News' poll, meanwhile, taken over the two days Obama was in Jordan and Israel, revealed that "the significant news coverage Barack Obama is receiving on his foreign trip has not translated into a bounce in his numbers." You can hear their disappointment in every word, can't you? This lack of bounce translation (perhaps it was done by Maliki's interpreter) was based on 900 registered voters willing to answer the phone and talk to Fox's pollsters "in the evening."
Over at Time, also four days before the trip was over, Joe Klein bypassed the question whether Obama did or didn't get a bounce -- why bother, it had already been decided by the conventional wisdom board of directors that he didn't -- and got right down to laying out the theories of why he didn't:
"Lots of speculation on the web, and in whispering circles, about why Obama's foreign trip -- a slam-dunk success substantively and in photo-op terms (Obama laughing with Petraeus in the helicopter was the best) -- hasn't resulted in a polling bump. The emerging conventional wisdom seems to be that the trip is a bit too grand, too . . . presumptuous and voters are wary of that."
Klein doesn't buy the conventional wisdom explanation (trip was presumptuous) of why the conventional wisdom about the trip (no bounce) was right. He's got an unconventional explanation of why the conventional wisdom is right:
"People may be thinking, what on earth is Obama doing over there when we have so many problems back home? Why isn't he talking about the economy?"
Perfectly reasonable -- if Obama didn't get a bounce. But not if he did. Comparing two sets of daily tracking polls -- Rasmussen and Gallup -- taken before Obama's trip started and (hey, here's a novel idea) after the trip actually ended, we see that Rasmussen shows a gain of 5 points for Obama, while Gallup shows a gain of 7. Doesn't that sound like a bounce to you?
Media insiders now talk about polling brands the way average Joes talk about their favorite beer. "My producer is a Quinnipiac person, but I'm more into Gallup." I suppose if they married, they'd have to raise the kids CBS/New York Times.
Not surprisingly, most journalists' favorite polls are the ones that legitimize their favored campaign narrative -- which they've often simply pulled out of their Rasmussen.
After all, nothing is more fun for journalists -- and better for ratings -- during campaign season than constantly changing the narrative: "Obama is up!" "McCain is surging!" "Obama is coming back!"
Fortunately for the new-narrative seekers, polls in America have the shelf life of bread in France. They get their freshly baked daily baguettes; we get our freshly baked daily polls.
And now we even have superpolls -- polls of polls. The CNN Poll of Polls has Obama with a lead of 44 to 41. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading 46.7 to 41.7. And pollster.com has him up 44.7 to 41.5.
Maybe what we need is a Huffington Post Poll of Polls of Polls, which will have a margin of error of plus or minus pi divided by Schrodinger's cat.
In about 13 weeks, the only poll that really matters will be taken -- among 142 million registered voters, and not 900 people so bored with life they are willing to interrupt their dinner to talk to a pollster.
But until then, since the media will no doubt continue to subject us to day after day of polling results and highly suspect analysis, can they at least make it clear precisely what kind of polling data they are basing their analysis on? What is the response rate on the poll? Is it a poll of "likely voters" or "registered voters"? What is the breakdown of Democrats, Republicans and independents?
I'm fine with people using polls as an amusement or as a fun way to start a dinnertime conversation, but to run around making grand statements based on dubious data is the height of foolishness. It's beyond time to break the cycle.
Recent Political Commentary
Bye-Bye 2008: Things I Want to Forget
Arianna Huffington
2008 was a very memorable year, featuring one of the most unforgettable presidential campaigns in history. I'd like
to take a moment to focus on the things that happened over the last 12 months that I'd love to forget.
Laissez-Faire Capitalism Should Be as Dead as Soviet Communism
Arianna Huffington
The collapse of Communism as a political system sounded the death knell for Marxism as an ideology. But while laissez-faire capitalism has been a monumental failure in practice, and soundly defeated at the polls, the ideology is still alive and kicking.
The Madoff Debacle
Arianna Huffington
Ambitious and risky undertakings featuring the weeding out of anyone who raises alarms, little-to-no transparency,
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complexity.
Does this sound Familiar? Is it Iraq? Fannie Mae? Citigroup? Bernie Madoff?
Arianna Huffington argues that the correct answer is "All of the Above."
Hillary Plus Obama Equals High Drama
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It's too early to tell what changes Hillary Clinton will bring to Barack Obama's foreign policy, but she's already had an enormous effect on his brand.
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Arianna Huffington on Politics & President-Elect Barack Obama
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Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy
G20 Leaders gather in Washington DC to address the Global Economic & Financial Crisis
President Bush and world leaders gathered for the first in a series of meetings to discuss efforts to strengthen
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President-Elect Barack Obama: Can Obama Pull Off A Historic Presidential Double Play
Arianna Huffington on Politics & President-Elect Barack Obama
Change was driven by two things: our remarkable capacity for regeneration, and Barack Obama's remarkable
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Barack Obama Wins: Why All Americans Have a Reason to Celebrate President-Elect Obama
Arianna Huffington on Politics & President-Elect Barack Obama
Even if your candidate didn't win Tuesday night, you have reason to celebrate. We all do. Ten months ago, when Barack Obama won in Iowa, we had a glimpse of what was possible and what became real Tuesday night.
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Barack Obama Closing Arguments Election 2008 Eve
FactCheck.org & the 2008 Election
With the finish line in sight, Obama serves up familiar, pie-in-the-sky promises.
In the last few days, Obama has wrapped up his pitch to the electorate with some misleading claims we've
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that's unlikely. He also kept up the drumbeat on a promise to end "tax breaks for sending jobs overseas,"
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John McCain Closing Arguments Election 2008 Eve
FactCheck.org & the 2008 Election
John McCain and Sarah Palin close their campaign with a new set of dubious attacks. In the final week, the
McCain-Palin campaign unleashed some all-new misleading attacks on Obama: McCain strained to tie Obama to a
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Barack Obama It’s Official Obama Born in the USA and The Truth About Obama's Birth Certificate
FactCheck.org & the 2008 Election
Of all the nutty rumors, baseless conspiracy theories and sheer disinformation that we’ve dealt with at
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There has never been anything but rumor and speculation to support such a claim, and zero hard evidence.
Barack Obama Should Spill a Little Red Ink to Turn a Few More Red States Blue
Arianna Huffington on Politics & the 2008 Election
Republicans, while still holding out hope for a "McCain Miracle," are increasingly worried that McCain is losing in a way that, as David Frum put it, "threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him."
Democrats, while being careful not to count their electoral chickens before they're hatched, are privately worried about winning without enough of a majority in the Senate to really change things.
John McCain The Internet and the Death of Rovian Politics
Arianna Huffington on Politics & the Internet's Impact
Age has finally become an issue for John McCain. But the problem isn't the candidate's 72 years; it's the antediluvian approach of his campaign.
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Political horse-race fans are focusing on Obama's 11-point lead in the new Newsweek poll. But I'm focusing on the 10-point lead McCain has on national security and terrorism -- the only remaining issue voters believe the Republican candidate would be more adept at handling.
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The Winner of Presidential Debate II? 'That One'
Arianna Huffington on Politics & the 2008 Debates
In Debate II, John McCain twice laid out the criteria for how the American people should judge the candidates: In tough times, we need someone with a steady hand on the tiller. By that measure, Obama was the clear winner.
Does John McCain Still Agree with Ronald Reagan that Government is the Problem
Arianna Huffington on Politics & the 2008 Economic Crisis
Ronald Reagan, in his first inaugural address, famously declared that "government is not the solution to our
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seven-plus years into the reign of Bush and Cheney, Reagan's anti-government battle cry should be on trial.
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The Bailout Plan: Welcome to Economic Shock & Awe
Arianna Huffington on Politics & the 2008 Economic Crisis
Welcome to Economic Shock and Awe (or as some have dubbed it, according to Paul Krugman, "the Authorization for Use of Financial Force").
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We've seen how negligent the Bush administration is with our money -- flushing billions on wasteful, mismanaged Iraq reconstruction and Katrina recovery projects.
The Palin Doctrine: Why the Neocons are So Excited
Arianna Huffington Politics & the 2008 Presidential Elections & Sarah Palin
Sarah Palin may not have known what the Bush Doctrine was, but we're getting a pretty good idea of what the
Palin Doctrine is. Or will be -- because it's still currently under construction. And what is it going to look like? Let's just say, it's going to seem familiar.
According to London's Daily Telegraph, the architects of the Palin Doctrine are a group of people who have been singularly wrong about virtually everything in the last decade -- the neocons, who have been briefing Palin for weeks.
As predicted, the fact that she didn't know anything wasn't a bug, it was a feature.
She's perfect for the neocons: likeable on the outside, a blank slate on the inside.
To borrow from an old cliche, if Sarah Palin didn't exist, the neocons would have had to invent her.
Sarah Palin: A Trojan Moose Concealing Four More Years of George Bush
Arianna Huffington Politics & the 2008 Presidential Elections
Did Sarah Palin wrongfully push to have her ex-brother-in law fired? Was she really against the "Bridge to Nowhere?" Did she really sell Alaska's plane on eBay, or just list it on eBay? Did she actually have any substantial duties commanding the Alaska National Guard?
The correct answer to all these questions is: Who cares?
Saving the GOP & The Unbearable Lightness of Being Sarah Palin
Arianna Huffington Politics & the 2008 Presidential Elections
You can see why Sarah Palin is such an appealing pick for John McCain. Along with all the things she brings to
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Arianna Huffington Politics & the 2008 Presidential Elections
What's great about the Biden pick isn't just that he has "foreign policy expertise," it's the kind of expertise
he has, how he uses it, and how useful his expertise is for the unique challenges we currently face around the
world. His approach favors diplomacy and engagement. Contrast that with the approach of John McCain, who also
has "foreign policy experience."
Making The Case That McCain Isn't 'Ready To Lead' on National Security
What I'm really hoping is that Obama will use this downtime to regroup, recharge, and come back ready to relentlessly make the case to the American people that McCain isn't "ready to lead" on national security. Voters trust McCain on the war on terror; Obama needs to show them every day why they shouldn't.
"Swing Vote": What It Tells Us About the Race, and Why Obama Needs to Put Kevin Costner on His Ipod
The makers of Swing Vote, the new film starring Kevin Costner, have pulled off a rare double play, producing a smart political satire that is also heartfelt and moving. It's also a film that turns out to be remarkably relevant to the 2008 race.
Obama's Trip Bounce - Media Obsession With Polls Leads to a Bad Case of Premature Pontification
Isn't it strange that Barack Obama didn't get a bounce from his wildly well-received overseas trip? Of course, almost all of this analysis is based on polls taken before the end of Obama's trip -- a serious case of premature pontification.
Tell Me Again, Why is Obama's Popularity With Our Allies A Bad Thing?
I understand why John McCain's campaign is desperately looking for negatives in Obama's overseas trip. But why have so many in the media internalized the McCain campaign's claptrap?
The Latest Media Blind Spot: Viewing All Criticism of Obama Through a Right-Left Prism
In the last two weeks, there has been a flurry of stories that has tried to portray criticism of Barack Obama's recent stands as the sole province of disenchanted members of "the left" -- also referred to as "the far left", "left-winger bloggers", ...
Surge Amnesia : The Media's Newest Affliction
John McCain, aided and abetted by his loving protectors in the media, is running a victory lap on Iraq. Buoyed by a reduction in violence in Iraq, war supporters are crawling out from the shadows and beating their chests
Memo to Obama : Moving to the Middle Is For Losers
I looked at the Obama campaign not through the prism of my own progressive views and beliefs but through the prism of a cold-eyed campaign strategist who has no principles except winning. From that point of view, and taking nothing else into consideration, I can unequivocally say: The Obama campaign is making a very serious mistake. Tacking to the center is a losing strategy.
McCain's Campaign Funding Hypocrisy: Why are the Media Looking the Other Way?
Isn't it interesting how, after largely ignoring the issue for the last 30 years, during which the GOP consistently outfundraised and outspent Democrats in election after election, the media are suddenly all atwitter about whether the campaign finance system is "basically fair"? How dare Obama inspire 1.5 million donors, giving an average of $197 apiece, to help him raise more money than McCain?
John McCain: The Second Coming of Bob Dole
"Prominent Republicans . . . have been for the first time openly critical" of John McCain's "floundering campaign."
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released last week asked the question, "Who do you think will win?" The answer: Barack Obama 54; John McCain 30. Obama is unlikely to win in such a landslide, which means that millions planning to vote for McCain expect him to lose -- as was the case with Dole.
Scotty Come Lately - Seven Takes on Scott McClellan's New Book
In his book "What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception," Scott McClellan offers withering portraits of George Bush, Karl Rove, Condi Rice and Scooter Libby, confirms that we went to war in Iraq under false pretenses, and that we were serially lied to about the outing of Valerie Plame.
Unmasking McCain: His Reactionary Record on Reproductive Rights
We've seen the exit polls. I get the anger and the disappointment. Really? In Clinton vs. McCain. And nowhere is the difference more profound than with reproductive rights.
Hillary Clinton's Defeat: A Historic Triumph
A front page story in Monday's New York Times wonders whether Hillary Clinton's flagging run for the presidency is "a historic if incomplete triumph or a depressing reminder of why few (women) pursue high office in the first place."
Political News Commentary and Opinion by Arianna Huffington
Arianna Huffington's e-mail address is arianna@huffingtonpost.com.
(c) 2008 Arianna Huffington. Distributed by Tribune Media Services, Inc.
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Social Commentary and Political Opinion Arianna Huffington
Arianna Huffington Political Commentary presented by iHaveNet.com - Swing Vote: What It Tells Us About the Race, and Why Obama Needs to Put Kevin Costner on His Ipod by Arianna Huffington
Arianna Huffington is a passionate partisan who doesn't mince words and takes no prisoners in her fight for social justice. Her straightforward, unabashedly liberal commentary speaks the language of average Americans. She freely attacks the conventional wisdom of both Democrats and Republicans and, in the process, gives voice to readers frustrated by politics-as-usual.
Arianna Huffington
Arianna Huffington is a nationally syndicated columnist and author of 10 books. She is also co-host of "Left, Right & Center," public radio's popular political roundtable program. Her weekly liberal commentary is syndicated in newspapers across the country by Tribune Media Services.
Originally from Greece, she moved to England when she was 16 and graduated from Cambridge University with an M.A. in economics. At 21, she became president of the famed debating society, the Cambridge Union. Her books include:
"The Female Woman," on the changing roles of women, was published in 1974 by Random House and translated into 11 languages.
"After Reason," on political leadership and the intersection of politics and culture was published in 1978.
"The Woman behind the Legend," published in 1981, a biography of Maria Callas quickly became an international bestseller.
"The Gods of Greece," celebrates the power of myths as guides to forgotten dimensions of life and ourselves. Atlantic Monthly Press republished it with paintings by Francoise Gilot
"Picasso: Creator and Destroyer," a biography of Pablo Picasso was published in 1988. It was a major international bestseller, translated into 16 languages. The book was made into a film starring Anthony Hopkins as Picasso and produced by Merchant-Ivory for Warner Bros.
"The Fourth Instinct," on the longing for meaning in a secular world, was published in 1994.
"Greetings from the Lincoln Bedroom," a political satire, was published in 1998.
"How to Overthrow the Government," on the corruption of our political system and the need for reform, was published in 2000.
"Pigs at the Trough: How Corporate Greed and Political Corruption are Undermining America,"a New York Times bestseller, was published in 2003.
"Fanatics and Fools: The Game Plan for Winning Back America", offers a scathing portrait of our contemporary political landscape with a bold, inspiring and practical approach to restoring America to the promise envisioned by our greatest leaders. It was published in 2004.
Huffington has made guest appearances on numerous television shows, including "Charlie Rose," "Oprah" "Nightline," "Real Time with Bill Maher," "Inside Politics," "Larry King Live," "Hardball," "Good Morning America," The Today Show, " "Countdown" and "The O'Reilly Factor."
In May, she launched The Huffington Post, an Internet publishing venture featuring an innovative group blog where some of this country?s most creative minds will weigh in on topics great and small, political and cultural, important or just plain entertaining.
She serves on several boards that promote community solutions to social problems, including A Place Called Home that works with at-risk children in South Central Los Angeles. She also serves on the Board of Trustees for the Archer School for Girls, the advisory board of the Council on American Politics at George Washington University, and the board of the Reform Institute that works on campaign and election reform issues.
Arianna Huffington lives in Los Angeles with her two daughters.
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