Joshua Landis
Interviewee:
Interviewer:
The chances for the just-passed
Q.
A. It seems very slight. Both sides believe that time is on their side and that they're going to win this struggle. President
Q. What does the opposition believe?
A. The opposition also believes that time is on their side and that that this regime is hanging by a thread. They believe there are going to be increasing defections, particularly amongst Sunni government and military officials, [and] that the international community and the Arab Gulf states and
Q. Is the opposition all Sunni? Are there any Allawites?
A. There are no Allawites to speak of. There have been Allawites who've spoken out against the regime, but I'm not sure there are any Allawites in the
Q. Discuss the opposition, which is having a meeting in coming days in
A. Yes. The opposition is in a state of chaos right now. The SNC, which has been the dominant external leadership and umbrella group for the opposition, and is led by Burhan Ghalyun, a French professor at the Sorbonne, is facing a crisis. It has been extremely successful in getting the international community organized to isolate the Assad regime and to turn against it. Ausama Monajed, as a right-hand man of Ghalyun's, was largely responsible for getting both
Q. Did this diplomatic failure cause a major problem for the opposition?
A. This created a big shift in the balance of power within the opposition community because it has become increasingly obvious to opposition members, particularly the opposition members on the ground in
The Syrian military, since the Russian-Chinese veto, has pursued a classic campaign of capture and hold. It is taking a page right out of the U.S. playbook, and it is taking back territory from the insurgency and it's holding it. The opposition had made the mistake, out of a sort of naïve enthusiasm, of believing that
Q. What about the Free Syrian Army? Does that really exist?
A. There [are] a lot of small militias manned by army deserters that have popped up like mushrooms across
Q. You mean the defectors want to help the rebel fighters.
A. Yes.
The SNC is worried that they'll become too Islamic and too uncontrollable, and there'll be lots of small little militias because there isn't a real command and control. So there've been a number of high-level defections of people who are just fed up with Ghalyun and this small bunch of people around him, who haven't been supporting the military side.
The SNC leaders got to the top in part because they had very excellent relations with European governments and America. They spoke foreign languages well; they've been outside for a long time; they're very liberal, secular, anti-Islamic. They got to the top because they needed to woo and win the support of Secretary of State
Q. What about Al-Qaeda and the Islamists?
A. Increasingly, what we're going to see is the Islamization of the opposition, and that's causing a lot of soul-searching on the part of this largely external European leadership that doesn't approve of this -- but they don't have an alternative because Syrians are Muslims, and the only available ideology to the insurgency in
We have seen fundraising rallies in
Q. Why has President Assad not offered to really make a deal?
A. Because his Ba'athist, one-party state is extremely brittle. It's organized around loyalty to a family and ultimately one man. If you start tinkering with that system, it's going to collapse. You can't allow a parliament that's free.
Twitter: @ihavenet
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