Michael Scott Doran
Who Will Benefit From the Second Arab Revolution?
After a long absence, a strategic player has returned to the Middle Eastern stage: the people. In
Half a century ago, a series of Arab nationalist movements shook the ground beneath the feet of Arab rulers. The immediate catalyst for that revolutionary shock was the Suez crisis. Throughout 1955,
Much like the ouster of Zine el-
In the 18 months that followed Nasser's victory, the region underwent what can only be described as an eruption.
Regimes fell and rose, countries united and fragmented, and armed conflicts erupted. Today's turmoil, then, is not unique; rather, it represents the second Arab revolution.
NASSER'S GHOSTS
Although the pan-Arab fervor of Nasser's time and the political unrest of today are similar, there are at least two obvious differences. First, the dominant ideology of Nasser's revolution, pan-Arabism, focused on external threats: gaining independence from imperialism and confronting
Yet the underlying ethos in both revolutions is very similar. Then, as now, the people in the street believed that the existing order was dominated by corrupt cliques that exploited the power of the state to serve their own interests. In the 1950s, popular imagination understood the unrepresentative nature of the system as an outgrowth of imperialism. Today, however, people see the problem as homegrown.
Nasser's authority was not as great as his myth might lead one to believe. In retrospect, his greatest achievement was creating an informal coalition against imperialism, which he did by aiding and abetting anti-status-quo forces that operated independently of him. Nasser quickly learned that tearing down regimes was one thing, but building a new order was another altogether. His pan-Arab movement dissolved once it had achieved its immediate aim of ousting the imperialists.
The underlying anarchic nature of Arab politics remains a constant, as does the difficulty of finding a distinction between "domestic" and "foreign" in Arab states, particularly in revolutionary moments. Such constants suggest that today's revolution will also usher in a period of prolonged turmoil.
The balance of power between state and society is shifting. As popular participation in politics expands -- and as the power of the police state recedes -- two interconnected dynamics will accelerate: one, the number of politically significant actors within each state will increase; two, some of these actors will establish relationships across international boundaries. Malign and disruptive forces will benefit from this change. Transnational movements hostile to the interests of
VIVE LA RÉSISTANCE BLOC
In navigating the Arab world's ongoing turmoil,
As it considers these competing paradigms, the Obama administration should remember that it is not the only actor attempting to shape the turmoil. Although there is no one personality like Nasser towering above the revolutionary events, there is one state seeking to reprise
The insurgency in
With this one-two, Sunni-Shiite punch, the resistance bloc pummeled
Beneath the surface, the seemingly random violence in
ALL ROADS RUN THROUGH JERUSALEM
Over the years,
To understand the role of the Israeli question in
Nasser was a master of tawreet. For example, in the mid-1950s,
In those days, it was the
The resistance bloc's behavior during
Faced with the accountability of the democratic process,
EMBROILING POINT
In navigating the crosscurrents of Middle Eastern politics, policymakers in
The resistance bloc opposes
Yet the Obama administration has rejected this strategy. Why? For one, the immediate danger does not appear to justify such an elevated effort. Both
To this end, the Obama administration has made the Arab-Israeli peace process the organizing principle of its
From the outset, the Obama administration has believed in the importance of pursuing a "comprehensive" settlement -- meaning a peace treaty that includes not just the Palestinians but, in addition, all the Arab states, especially Syria. As the administration has failed to make any headway in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the Syrian track has grown in importance. Consequently,
THE RETURN OF THE MEN WITH GUNS
As
This is not to say that the resistance bloc is poised to mimic Nasser's achievements in every respect. The comparison is not entirely symmetrical. In some countries,
Although the resistance bloc may not be as influential as Nasser was, it is nevertheless poised to pounce, jackal-like, on the wounded states of the region. Moreover, it has already proved itself capable of mounting an effective asymmetric challenge that should not be underestimated. Over the last five years, it has defied
The most important arena in the months and years ahead, therefore, is the struggle for regional hegemony. Many U.S. interests will be threatened by conflicts that, at first glance, will appear unrelated to the future of
A call for justice and dignity also drove the first Arab revolution. The fact that a military man -- Nasser -- symbolized those aspirations in the 1950s speaks volumes about the pan-Arab movement, which, in the end, was hijacked by men with guns. In Bouazizi, the second revolution has chosen as its representative an entirely different kind of personality. His selection, too, speaks volumes, but the precise meaning of the message is ambiguous. As a humble fruit vendor who wanted nothing more than a fair shake in life, Bouazizi could symbolize the triumph of the human spirit. On the other hand, Bouazizi died a broken man. The men with guns are only hiding in the shadows, and they may yet play a decisive role in fashioning the new
MICHAEL SCOTT DORAN is a Visiting Professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University. He is a former Senior Director for the Middle East at the National Security Council and a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
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