Alex Vines
Coverage of events in Côte d'Ivoire seems to have gone quiet, but a dangerous power struggle continues over the recent
The disputed outcome is already having a regional impact as over 300 Ivorians have been killed and another twenty thousand have fled into neighbouring countries to escape the violence, while the number of internally displaced persons has mushroomed. There has been a political stand-off since the
Following the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny in 1993, the country succumbed to coups, chaos and ethnic division. This political crisis is the latest chapter since civil war erupted in 2002 and split the country. In
The only initially promising aspect of this situation has been that of leadership from emerging African institutions.
On
From
On
Gbagbo has dug in his heels, claimed electoral fraud, and called on the nine thousand UN and roughly nine hundred French troops to leave because they are partisan, which they have refused to do - in effect indicating he no longer enjoys international recognition as head of state. Gbagbo continues to enjoy the support of the navy, the presidential guard, a paramilitary police unit and some militia groups, as he still receives funds from tax revenues, customs dues and income from cocoa, coffee and the oil sector, worth some
This indicates that for the time being, Gbagbo can pay the civil servants and military and enjoy some support - but over time, if sanctions bite and financing channels are tightened, this loyalty might shift. Ouatarra has also failed so far to seriously reach out to woo Gbagbo supporters and show that he can unite the country. That Côte d'Ivoire technically defaulted in early February on its
Despite the ramping-up of external pressure on Gbagbo, mediation efforts have so far failed. The AU dispatched former South African president Thabo Mbeki in December for talks with both camps, but he was unable to find agreement and his report to the
Cracks have also appeared in the initially united ECOWAS and AU positions. Gbagbo has received support from
Some twenty heads of state and government attended anAU summit in
There are evident divisions, regional rivalries and disagreements about approach, particularly intervention. The controversy about the deployment to
It is difficult to see how, without a united AU or ECOWAS front, the AU mediation will break the current gridlock or how the option of force can become a viable policy option. Although Gbagbo has sent mixed messages about his willingness to negotiate with Ouattara, and Ouattara has hinted on a soft landing for Gbagbo, it looks like Côte d'Ivoire will continue to be a protracted power struggle until some type of accommodation can be reached. Continued instability in Côte d'Ivoire will further destroy one of
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Available at Amazon.com:
Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World
Displacement and Dispossession in the Modern Middle East (The Contemporary Middle East)
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The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
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Running Out of Water: The Looming Crisis and Solutions to Conserve Our Most Precious Resource
Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water
Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century
Dining With al-Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the Middle East
Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy
Copyright 2011, Chatham House; Distributed by TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES, INC.