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Panthers Cam Newton Excels in Deep Passing Game
Jim Keller

HOME > SPORTS

 

Charlotte, NC

If scouts and analysts doubted whether Cam Newton had the ability and smarts to play in the NFL, those doubts were answered in the first two weeks of the season.

Newton, the 22-year-old who was the first overall pick in the draft, threw for 854 yards in the first two three weeks of the season and played at home against Jacksonville Sunday. Gabbert, a fellow first-round pick this April, made his first start.

The advantage went to Newton, as while he didn't pass for prolific stats as he did in the opening two weeks, he hit Greg Olsen on a late 16-yard scoring strike to get the Panthers in the win column.

How has he done it and how does he compare to other young rookies thrown into the fire?

The first thing that stands out when analyzing Newton's start is the passing yards, including an NFL record 422 in his pro debut in a 28-21 loss to Arizona on Sept. 11.

Despite predictions that the Panthers would break Newton in slowly by establishing the run game and mixing in short passes, Carolina turned loose its powerful 6-foot-5 quarterback from the opening quarter.

Newton completed 52-of-83 passes against Carolina and Green Bay and would have even better if not for eight drops - tied for second most in the league - and a running game that averaged just 2.5 yards per carry whenever somebody other than leading rusher Newton carries the ball.

Using some in-depth statistics from profootballfocus.com, Newton has impressed most with the deep ball.

In the first two weeks on balls thrown 20 yards or longer, Newton completed 10-of-15 passes for an NFL-best 370 yards.

To put his accomplishment in better perspective, of all the young quarterbacks who debuted over the last four years, Atlanta's Matt Ryan is the only one to complete more than 14 - for the entire season.

As for Newton, 18.1 percent of his passes have been thrown 20 yards or more downfield - easily the highest percentage among full-time starters since PPF started compiling data in 2008 and well above the league average of 11.6 percent in the first two weeks of this season.

Adding in the one drop on long balls, Newton's total of 11 potential completions is three more than any other quarterback in the league.

Newton is on pace for 88, which would be 50 more than any other QB since 2008, however it's highly unlikely he'll be able to keep up the pace as his hot start regresses back to the mean and defenses make adjustments.

That proved to be the case in week No. 3, as Newton completed 18 of 34 passes for just 158 yards and the one score.

How have other rookie starters of late handled the deep ball, as Newton did so ably in the first two tilts?

Newton's teammate, Jimmy Clausen, completed just 9-of-27 tosses over 20 yards last season and only went deep nine percent of the time.

While St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford set an NFL rookie-record with 354 completions last season, only 25.5 percent of his passes traveled more than 10 yards downfield, while Newton threw downfield 10 or more yards over 53 percent of the time in two games.

Bradford was last among quarterbacks in attempts of 21 yards or longer (6.8 percent). He completed just 13-of-40 with three drops.

Mark Sanchez quarterbacked the New York Jets to the playoffs in 2009, but he completed just 13-of-44 balls targeted 20 yards down field for an accuracy percentage (factoring in drops as completions) of 38.6.

Matthew Stafford quarterbacked the Lions during his rookie season in 2009, starting and playing in 10 games. He completed as many deep passes - 10 - as Newton has in two games in 43 attempts for a 23.2 percent completion rate - third worst among all QBs taking 50 percent of their clubs snaps - and his six picks also gave him the third worst percentage.

Josh Freeman also took the reigns in '09 for the Tampa Bay Bucs, going deep 12.4 percent of the time, completing 10 of 36 with an accuracy percentage of 36.1 percent.

Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco helped the Ravens to the playoffs in 2008, but he was just 14-of-51 on deep balls and when you add in three drops his accuracy percentage of 31.4 was second to last among full-time starters. He went deep just over 11 percent of the time.

Although in his second season in 2009, JaMarcus Russell was an abysmal 1 of 34 with seven picks on deep passes for the Oakland Raiders.

Ryan helped the Falcons to the playoffs in 2008, targeting receivers 20 yards downfield on 13.4 percent of his passes, completing 23 of 55 for 41.8 percent with just one pick. His accuracy percentage was 54.5 percent - best among QBs with 50 attempts.

Since 2008, the most completions plus drops in a season is 38 by Drew Brees in 2010. He also tallied 37 during the Saints' Super Bowl title season in '09. Pittsburgh signal caller Ben Roethlisberger had 37 in '09 as well.

What about the Panthers' future with their young signal caller?

Eleven of the 12 passers who have completed 32 or more passes of at least 20 yards in one season, have made the playoffs. That could be a tall order for the rebuilding Panthers this season but certainly bodes well for the future.

 

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NFL 2011 - Panthers Cam Newton Excels in Deep Passing Game

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