- MENU
- HOME
- SEARCH
- WORLD
- MAIN
- AFRICA
- ASIA
- BALKANS
- EUROPE
- LATIN AMERICA
- MIDDLE EAST
- United Kingdom
- United States
- Argentina
- Australia
- Austria
- Benelux
- Brazil
- Canada
- China
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hungary
- India
- Indonesia
- Ireland
- Israel
- Italy
- Japan
- Korea
- Mexico
- New Zealand
- Pakistan
- Philippines
- Poland
- Russia
- South Africa
- Spain
- Taiwan
- Turkey
- USA
- BUSINESS
- WEALTH
- STOCKS
- TECH
- HEALTH
- LIFESTYLE
- ENTERTAINMENT
- SPORTS
- RSS
- iHaveNet.com: Latin America
Latin America Will Do Well, But Not Great, in 2014
by Andres Oppenheimer
Some of the best-known international institutions have just released their economic forecasts for Latin America in 2014, and most of them agree that this will be a better year than 2013 in the region. The big question is whether they aren't too optimistic.
ECLAC head Alicia Barcena told me in an interview from the commission's headquarters in Santiago, Chile, that she expects higher growth in the region this year because Latin America's two largest economies, Mexico and Brazil, will grow more than last year, and because the U.S. economic recovery will help many countries increase their exports to the U.S. market.
In addition, Europe's crisis seems to have bottomed out, and China's economy has not fallen as much as some feared, all of which will further help Latin American exports, she said.
"We are moderately optimistic," Barcena told me. "But we aren't talking about major growth. We're talking about a 3.2 percent growth, which remains a pretty mediocre growth rate, even if it's better than last year's."
According to ECLAC's forecast, among the fastest-growing countries in the region will be Panama (7 percent,) Peru (5.5 percent,) Bolivia (5.5 percent,) Colombia (4.5 percent,) Ecuador (4.5 percent,) and Chile (4 percent.)
Mexico's economy will grow by 3.5 percent this year, Brazil's by 2.6 percent, Argentina's by 2.6 percent, and Venezuela will grow by only 1 percent, becoming the slowest-growing economy in the region, according to ECLAC's projections.
A separate economic forecast released by the
Latin America's economy will grow by 2.9 percent in 2014, up from a 2.5 percent growth rate last year, the
Among the fastest growing economies in the region will be Panama (7.3 percent,) Peru (5.5 percent,) Bolivia (4.7 percent,) Colombia (4.3 percent,) and Mexico (3.4 percent,) it says. Argentina and Brazil will grow at moderate rates (2.8 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively,) and Venezuela will virtually not grow at all (0.5 percent,) the report says.
Looking beyond this year's projections, the
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde told me in an interview late last year that "2014 will be a bit better than 2013 across the board." As for Latin America, she told me the region will grow by about 3.1 percent, up from 2.7 percent in 2013.
Lagarde said she expects Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru to be among the region's best-performing economies.
My opinion: While international institutions have some of the world's best economists, I tend to take their economic projections with a dose of skepticism. Past experience has taught me that they tend to err on the side of optimism, perhaps because they are under tacit pressure from governments of their member countries, or because, when in doubt, they want to create a climate of confidence.
A year ago at this time,
The good news is that Latin America's economy will most likely grow this year. The bad news is that - if past projections are any indication - it probably won't grow by as much as major international institutions are prodicting.
WORLD | AFRICA | ASIA | EUROPE | LATIN AMERICA | MIDDLE EAST | UNITED STATES | ECONOMICS | EDUCATION | ENVIRONMENT | FOREIGN POLICY | POLITICS
Article: Copyright ©, Tribune Content Agency.
"Latin America Will Do Well, But Not Great, in 2014"