- MENU
- HOME
- SEARCH
- WORLD
- MAIN
- AFRICA
- ASIA
- BALKANS
- EUROPE
- LATIN AMERICA
- MIDDLE EAST
- United Kingdom
- United States
- Argentina
- Australia
- Austria
- Benelux
- Brazil
- Canada
- China
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hungary
- India
- Indonesia
- Ireland
- Israel
- Italy
- Japan
- Korea
- Mexico
- New Zealand
- Pakistan
- Philippines
- Poland
- Russia
- South Africa
- Spain
- Taiwan
- Turkey
- USA
- BUSINESS
- WEALTH
- STOCKS
- TECH
- HEALTH
- LIFESTYLE
- ENTERTAINMENT
- SPORTS
- RSS
- iHaveNet.com: Latin America
Cuba Poll Won't Change U.S. Policy (Photo: Petr Jan Juracka)
by Andres Oppenheimer
A new poll showing that a majority of Miamians support a normalization of U.S. ties with Cuba has drawn a lot of excitement in the media, as the poll's organizers and many pundits predicted that the survey will have a big impact on U.S. policy toward the island. Unfortunately, I don't share their optimism.
After reading the poll's fine-print and talking with some Washington insiders, I'm not that sure that Washington - especially the
The poll, released earlier this week by the
"This survey shows that the majority of Americans on both sides of the aisle are ready for a policy shift," say Peter Schechter and Jason Marczak, the top officials of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center of the
Problem is, we've heard this many times before. And, like other similar polls that showed an increased support for easing U.S. economic sanctions on the island, the
In 2009, a poll by
On Wednesday, I called Schechter and Marczak and asked them about the poll's methodology. They confirmed to me that, in fact, it is a poll of the general population, but emphasized that more than 90 percent of those surveyed - both nationally and in Florida - are registered voters. Still, the poll did not ask questions that would give us a hint about whether these registered voters are likely voters.
"If we were running an election, we would filter by registered voters, or by people who intend to vote," said Schechter. "But this is an issue campaign, and when you do an issue campaign, you try to poll everybody."
But both Republican Cuban-American legislators, who tend to be the staunchest supporters of U.S. sanctions on Cuba, and their Democratic counterparts say the poll is not likely to change their pro-embargo stand, nor that of
"I don't see the poll as changing the public policy of the
Congressman Joe Garcia, D-Miami, a strong supporter of President Barack Obama's policy to expand travel and remittances to Cuba, told me in a separate interview that the new poll "is meaningless."
"We have seen this before," Garcia said. He noted that the embargo is an emotional issue for many Cuban-American voters, and that those who support it tend to vote on it, while those who oppose it tend to cast their votes based on other issues.
Garcia added, "There is no will to take this thing on in
My opinion:
U.S. politicians will not change their minds, because - as Garcia says - opposing the embargo does not add any votes. And Cuban politicians are not interested in a normalization of ties either, because they need to maintain the fiction that they are at "war" with the United States in order to stay in power indefinitely.
I would like Obama to continue expanding travel in both directions, because Cubans who come to Miami almost always go back to the island with a more favorable view of the United States than they came with. And Obama should also, by executive actions, expand trade with Cuban businesses that are not run by the island's dictatorship.
But I don't expect much more than that to happen until there are signs of serious change in Cuba.
WORLD | AFRICA | ASIA | EUROPE | LATIN AMERICA | MIDDLE EAST | UNITED STATES | ECONOMICS | EDUCATION | ENVIRONMENT | FOREIGN POLICY | POLITICS
Article: Copyright ©, Tribune Content Agency.
"Cuba Poll Won't Change U.S. Policy"