Why wait until after legislative elections in Venezuela for an analysis? Argentine columnist Carolina Barros asked a few days ago. We already know the results: yet another win for President Hugo Chávez, she wrote.

Are she and other foreign observers right in predicting that Chávez will win, thanks to a fraudulent electoral process? Or can the opposition surprise us with an upset victory, as it did in a 2007 constitutional referendum that would have given Chávez even greater powers?

Barros' column in The Buenos Aires Herald argues, accurately, that Venezuela's Chávez-controlled National Electoral Board has created electoral districts in such a way that it would be almost impossible for the opposition to win a majority in the 165-seat National Assembly, Venezuela's unicameral Congress.

Indeed, thanks to new electoral rules, pro-Chávez states enjoy much greater congressional representation than anti-Chávez states. As Venezuelan pollster Luis Vicente Leon said at last week's The Miami Herald/World Bank Americas Conference, to elect one single congressman it will take only 20,000 votes in the sparsely populated pro-Chávez state of Amazonas, while it will take nearly 400,000 votes in the densely populated opposition-majority state of Zulia.

Thus, the opposition could win the popular vote, but Chávez would still have a majority in the National Assembly.

In addition, Chávez controls much of Venezuela's television time, thanks to outright censorship, including the 2007 closing of the independent RCTV television network, intimidation of media companies through judicial actions against their owners, and financial help through pro-government advertising.

Finally, Chávez has another important advantage, which is that some likely opposition voters may stay at home on election day because they are convinced there will be fraud. Or they may remain at home because they believe that even if the opposition turned out victorious, Chávez would not heed the popular vote, ordering the current congress to vote itself out of existence and to create a new pro-Chávez legislative body.

But, despite the uneven race, pollsters are predicting a photo finish on Sunday.

Venezuela's Hinterlaces polling firm says 34 percent of likely voters are planning to vote for opposition candidates, while 32 percent for pro-Chávez candidates, and the remainder are undecided or will vote for independent candidates.

Even so, the opposition would win 69 seats in Congress, while the government would win 96, it says.

Another survey by Venezuela's Datanálisis firm shows that 27 percent of likely voters are planning to vote for pro-Chávez candidates, 25 percent for opposition candidates, and the remainder are undecided, or planning to vote for independents. Both polls have a margin of error of 3 percent, making the outcome even more unpredictable.

"What's at stake on Sunday is not who will control Congress, because Chávez will have a majority of Congress under any possible scenario," pollster Leon, of Datanalisis, told me this week. "What's at stake is whether Chávez will win the 66 percent of Congress and retain the absolute majority he will need to continue single-handedly appointing key officials, such as the attorney general, or members of the Supreme Court."

My opinion: I agree. As Barros and other Venezuela watchers accurately state, the dice are heavily loaded in Chávez's favor, and he will retain a congressional majority no matter what. But if Chávez doesn't win a two-thirds majority in Congress, he will no longer wield the absolute powers he has been enjoying for several years.

If the opposition can move from its current near-zero congressional representation -- the result of its disastrous 2005 decision to boycott the electoral process -- to 58 seats in the National Assembly, it will be able to block some key presidential appointments.

If it reaches a 67-seat congressional minority, it could even block Chávez's ability to rule by decree, and could start congressional inquiries into massive government corruption.

The bottom line is that, if we can call the results of a fraudulent process a "victory," Chávez will win. But if the opposition does well in Sunday's election, its new presence in the National Assembly -- coupled with Latin America's worst-performing economy, 30 percent inflation rates and growing food shortages -- could mark a turning point in Venezuela's recent history.

 

Available at Amazon.com:

The Great Gamble

At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes

 

 

(C) 2010 Andres Oppenheimer