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Andres Oppenheimer
Keep an eye on Colombia! After Sunday's landslide victory of president-elect Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia could follow the steps of Brazil, Chile and Peru, and become South America's next economic success story.
Granted, many things can go wrong, including a resurgence of Marxist guerrilla violence and a new round of tensions with neighboring Venezuela and Ecuador. But well-placed Colombia watchers cite four major reasons why Colombia could take off under Santos.
First, Santos, who most recently served as outgoing President Alvaro Uribe's minister of defense, won with nearly 70 percent of the vote, and 2 million votes more than what Uribe got in his last election. That will give Santos a solid majority in
Colombia is already the fourth-largest recipient of foreign investment in Latin America -- after Brazil, Chile and Mexico, according to a recent
Unlike Uribe, a lawyer by profession, Santos is an economist who graduated from the
Second, Santos may have a better chance than Uribe of getting the
"Santos will get along better with the Democrats because he doesn't have a history (of tensions) with Obama and Clinton," former Colombian President Cesar Gaviria told me this week. But U.S. congressional sources caution that the Democratic majority in
LESS POLARIZATION
Third, Santos has a less confrontational personality than Uribe, and may be more likely to ease tensions both at home and with Colombia's neighbors, many observers say.
"There is already a new climate of less polarization in the country," Gaviria said. "People feel that the new government won't be constantly fighting with non-government organizations like human rights groups, like Uribe did. And Santos will not allow himself to be isolated internationally, like Uribe did."
Fourth, Santos vowed in his victory speech to fight impunity of human rights abusers, and to improve presidential ties with the justice system, which may improve Colombia's human rights situation.
'A PRAGMATIST'
Jose Miguel Vivanco, head of Latin American affairs of the
Vivanco added, however, that there are concerns in the human rights community over Santos' campaign vows to allow the military to prosecute its members on human rights violations, and to subordinate the attorney general's office to the presidential office.
My opinion: I'm not buying the conventional wisdom in Colombia that Santos will be able to improve ties with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.
The Venezuelan president needs a permanent confrontation with Colombia in order to divert attention from worsening economic problems at home, and to justify his increasingly authoritarian rule. Also, Santos told me in a recent interview that he and Chávez "are like water and oil," and these two elements don't mix no matter how hard you try to bring them together.
But I think there is an at least even chance that Santos may take Colombia to the next level, taking advantage of the economic stability he inherited, his huge mandate in the polls, and his focus on the economy. If he does reasonably well, Colombia may be the next rising star in the region.
Available at Amazon.com:
At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes
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World - Under Santos Colombia Could Rise to the Next Level | Global Viewpoint