Economic Gale Winds Have Made Investing Tough
Andrew Leckey

Smart investment calls aren't so easy to come by.

They require insight, patience and a bit of luck. Once they pan out, however, they are fondly remembered for a long time.

Some bold calls made during the market plummet of 2008 proved highly successful and an examination of the logic behind them can be helpful for the future.

Perhaps the most dramatic call made the past 20 years in the career of Arthur Hogan, director of global equity products for Boston-based Jefferies & Co., took place during that period.

"I really stuck my neck out in November 2008 and said the market was going to bottom out because so much carnage had taken place in such a short amount of time," recalls Hogan of his call that encouraged investing and reaped rewards the following spring. "I made that call because I saw we really needed some sanity to come back into the market."

A lesson throughout history is that "you need to be greedy when people are panicking and panic when people are being greedy," Hogan explained. Too many investors last year lost sight of the fact that companies would still be in business in another year. Panic provided buying opportunities.

"The market was a nerve-wracking mess in December 2008, but one of the stocks we picked then was the North American railroad Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)," said Kelley Wright, managing editor of the Investment Quality Trends newsletter, Carlsbad, Calif. "After October 2008, the market had taken this stock out and shot it, driving it to such a ridiculous low that any market improvement would make a difference."

In economic recovery, there's nothing more basic than railroads, he reasoned, since when business picks up there's always greater need to move products cross-country. In tune with that logic, Union Pacific stock rose 36 percent last year.

"A year ago, I made the decision to overweight high-yield bond funds because I had a lot of income-sensitive clients who can tolerate some risk, and during that flight to safety you got a 9 percent yield if you assumed some risk," said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments for Hinsdale Associates, Hinsdale, Ill., and a former JPMorgan portfolio manager. "When yields started tightening, prices of the high-yield bond funds started to increase and provided a strong gain for those who invested."

Some clients were unwilling to take on such uncertainty because the common logic was to stay firmly entrenched in Treasurys offering zero risk but a miniscule yield. It is worth noting that his clients willing to go with the high-yield (non-investment-grade and lower-quality) bonds were mostly retired or close to retirement and already held diversified portfolios.

Lest you think those pros are infallible, realize that they too make mistakes and are willing to acknowledge them. Maybe it helps to get it off their chest.

"My wife told me on three separate occasions to buy Apple Inc. and all three times I told her it was overpriced," recalls Hogan. "That first conversation started when Apple was at just $25 a share and it has since gone beyond $200 a share."

It was the worst call he had ever made and "my wife is more than willing to bring up the fact that I made that call at each and every cocktail party and family event we ever attend," he sighed. Maybe next time he'll listen.

"In 2009, we recommended Procter & Gamble Co., the consumer products behemoth, as a good, safe bet that simply couldn't go wrong because its stock had already been beaten up," said Wright. "That's what we thought, but that stock was up barely 1 percent last year in the midst of a rampaging stock market."

When the market did pick up, Procter & Gamble was considered far too defensive a holding by investors, as money flowed into the riskier stocks expected to make comebacks. Wright, while so prescient with Union Pacific, had mistakenly selected a stock in P&G that was better suited to recession than a market rebound.

Never overlook the obvious.

"In 1996, I was working at a bank starting my career when I noticed that the Starbucks stores had a nice niche and were often quite crowded, but all the research and analysts were claiming it was too pricey and its concept was a fad," winces Fitzpatrick. "It was at about $5 a share but I talked myself out of buying it and it went to $40 in 2006."

Not yet learning his lesson, Fitzpatrick missed out again last year when he could have bought Starbucks for around $10, but again demurred because of the economy and some of the firm's problems. The shares have since more than doubled.

Every investment professional always has another call to make, so here are a couple of current recommendations:

Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which does bread-and-butter tech work for companies such as payrolls, is a well-managed company that should excel once unemployment levels start to improve, Wright expects.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the pharmaceutical powerhouse, has been unduly punished because of healthcare reform discussions, Fitzpatrick believes. It has an underrated drug pipeline, good integration of its acquisition Wyeth and will benefit from an aging population.