MLB Fantasy 2016: Five Players Primed to Bust

When it comes to fantasy baseball, no one wants to draft a bust. PointAfter has five MLB players that could fall short of expectations in 2016.

Bust -- it's a word that makes every fantasy owner recoil in fear. On draft day, everyone wants to avoid the dreaded "busts" that can single-handedly tank even the most promising seasons.

But here's the thing about busts: they're all relative. A guy going in the first round could fall short of expectations, thus qualifying him as bust-worthy. But if you picked him up in the 10th round, you might be happy with his final stat line.

That's the thing to keep in mind here as we highlight five household names primed to bust this season -- it's all about what's expected of them. Given their average draft positions, these are players we predict will fall short of their current forecasts. That's not to say they won't be helpful in some way, but if you snag them at their current valuation, you might end up disappointed.

Note: Average draft positions for each player are from Yahoo's March 27 Draft Analysis.

2B Dee Gordon

Preseason rank: 21

Average draft position: 21.8

Everything went right for Dee Gordon in 2015. He won the National League Gold Glove Award, Silver Slugger Award and batting title while also leading the league in stolen bases for the second straight year. The Marlins rewarded him with a five-year, $50 million contract extension this offseason, a seemingly fair price for a player entering his age-28 season who was worth 7.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) the past two years.

In the context of fantasy baseball, however, Gordon is a one-trick pony. His speed should always be a reliable asset, but his .333 batting average in 2015 was boosted by an extremely high .383 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) -- a strong indicator that he benefited from some good luck. In addition, he offers no value in the power department, with an Isolated Power (ISO) rating of .085, well below the league average of .140.

Of course, having a high BABIP doesn't just mean a player is lucky -- hitters who make a lot of contact and have elite speed tend to have higher BABIP totals than the league average of .300, and Gordon fits the bill on both of those fronts. However, here's the list hitters who have had seasons with a BABIP of at least .380 and a sub-.100 ISO rating since 2000:

Luis Castillo (2000): .395 BABIP, .054 ISO

Ichiro Suzuki (2004): .399 BABIP, .082 ISO

Ichiro Suzuki (2007): .389 BABIP, .080 ISO

Dee Gordon (2015): .383 BABIP, .085 ISO

Prime Ichiro was a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but Castillo is a more interesting comparison for Gordon. Both players manned second base for the Marlins, both enjoyed gaudy two-year stolen base totals (Castillo stole 112 bases from 1999 to 2000) and both were slap hitters with no power.

After hitting .334 in 2000, Castillo's BABIP regressed to .310 in 2001 -- more consistent with his career BABIP of .329 -- and his batting average fell to a meager .263. Gordon could be in line for a similar turn in BABIP fortune for 2016. Making matters worse is that, unlike Castillo, who had a career 10.7 percent walk rate, Gordon's on-base percentage rises and falls at the mercy of his batting average -- his walk rate in 2015 was 3.8 percent, the fifth-lowest among qualified hitters.

With no power, no plate discipline and a regressed BABIP, Gordon is nowhere near worthy of a second-round pick. The stolen bases are nice, but draft at your own risk.

OF Nelson Cruz

Preseason rank: 35

Average draft position: 33.7

After moving from Camden Yards to Safeco Field prior to the 2015 season, Nelson Cruz looked like a prime bust candidate this time last year. He was 34 years old and had just signed a $58 million deal that seemed destined to morph into an albatross sooner rather than later.

Cruz shrugged off all the bust talk and kept on mashing. He cranked out a career-high 44 home runs to go along with a .302 batting average, his highest since 2010. He finished in the top 20 in percentage of hard-hit balls among players with at least 600 plate appearances, showing no decline in his bat speed.

A closer look at the numbers, though, suggests a decline might be around the corner. Cruz benefited from a high .350 BABIP, bloating his batting average, and his 25 percent strikeout rate was his highest since 2007. He's been healthy the past four seasons but has a long history of injuries, a troubling sign for a player set to turn 36 this July. The home run power is still there for Cruz, but so are the warning signs for a downturn that could hit at any moment.

OF Carlos Gonzalez

Preseason rank: 43

Average draft position: 44.1

Once among the game's most feared hitters, Carlos Gonzalez had fallen off the map in recent years. This was mostly due to injury -- he missed 144 games combined the past two seasons -- but also a result of a steep drop in production.

CarGo made his return to relevancy in 2015, setting a career high with 40 home runs and appearing in 153 games, but shouldn't be expected to carry any fantasy roster in 2016. He's no longer a stolen base threat, his walk rate is sub-par and he showed a complete inability to hit against lefties last season. This increases the odds he'll eventually be platooned, thus limiting his fantasy value.

Given the injury risk that will follow him for the rest of his career, this is not a player that should be taken anywhere near the top 50.

1B Prince Fielder

Preseason rank: 54

Average draft position: 44.6

After missing most of the 2014 season with a neck injury, seeing Prince Fielder appear in 158 games in 2015 was something worthy of celebration. His stellar production last season, though, was a bit misleading.

Fielder's .305 batting average benefited from a .323 BABIP, higher than his career average and especially high for someone who isn't prone to beating out slow rollers for infield hits. A once-feared power hitter, he only cleared the fences 23 times last season and posted a 9.2 percent walk rate, his lowest since 2006. Fielder is still a good hitter and will be useful as long as he stays healthy, but his power numbers have been in decline for years, and expecting a 30-home run, 100-RBI season from him is no longer a realistic proposition.

1B Sonny Gray

Preseason rank: 67

Average draft position: 68.1

It seems odd to put the third-place AL Cy Young Award finisher on the busts list, but that's where we find Sonny Gray heading into 2016. While he's a very good pitcher, a closer look at the stats shows someone who's not quite at a Cy Young-type level.

Gray's strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.87 K/BB) isn't exactly eye-popping, and his 7.31 K/9 doesn't blow anybody away either. His BABIP allowed last season was .255, which was especially low considering he doesn't have elite strikeout-level stuff and had one of the league's worst defenses behind him in 2015.

Further, Gray's Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) totals -- a stat that measures what a player's ERA would be given league average results on balls in play and timing -- have consistently been higher than his ERA totals, suggesting that he's benefited from some good fortune over the years. Last season, his ERA (2.73) was nearly a run better than his FIP (3.45), and that difference was among the highest in the league.

There are some good pitchers on this list, of course, but the overall point is Gray's benefited from some good luck over the years, and the tables could turn at any moment. He's one of the game's most talented young arms, but he shouldn't be expected to deliver Cy Young Award-caliber production again in 2016.

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