Five Most Snakebitten Batters of the Season

We determined the unluckiest hitters of the MLB season thus far. Who's due for a turnaround?

Some batters who've struggled throughout the season's first month probably feel like they've simply suffered from a bout of bad luck in 2016. Maybe they've made good contact, but haven't adhered to the famous words of Wee Willie Keeler: "Hit 'em where they ain't." This week's Weekly Rotation will highlight a few hitters who have legitimate claims to experiencing the unluckiest opening months of the season.

We'll do so by examining the five batters enduring the broadest variation in their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2016 compared to their career marks. BABIP is a statistic widely used to gauge luck in instances where the onus is on the defense to retire a hitter -- that is, any at-bat that doesn't end in a strikeout or home run.

The league average BABIP tends to be around .300 in any given season, which basically means there's a 70 percent chance MLB defenders can retire an opponent once the ball is in play. Any professional hitter with a BABIP around .400 has been lucky enough to consistently find holes in the defense. A player with a BABIP around the Mendoza line, meanwhile, hasn't been able to adhere to Keeler's well-known advice as often as they'd like.

Though these snake-bitten sluggers could yet turn their seasons around, you can bet some of these guys -- and the managers whose jobs depend on their performance -- are starting to feel a little antsy about their place on the lineup card.

Notes: All statistics are accurate as of games played on May 2 unless otherwise noted. Only qualified hitters in 2016 were considered.

5. Kyle Seager, Mariners

2016 BABIP: .153
Career BABIP: .284
BABIP Difference: .131

If you look at Seager's slash line (.167/.265/.389), it's easy to assume the 28-year-old could be due for a massive letdown in the second season of his seven-year, $100 million extension. But BABIP and a couple other peripheral statistics show that he's been the victim of wildly unfortunate luck.

Seager has the second-worst BABIP (.153) in the Majors despite possessing a career-high 39.7% hard-hit rate. He's also swung at fewer pitches outside the zone than ever before, which should lead to stronger contact and a higher BABIP. Instead, his BABIP is actually lower than his batting average (.181), which is extremely rare.

That's what happens when you've cranked as many home runs as singles (five) in 2016, an odd factoid shared by the next two hitters on the list. As evidenced by Seager's slash line over the last seven days (.368/.478/.895), however, both his traditional stats and BABIP should soon reflect his recent resurgence.

4. Troy Tulowitzki, Blue Jays

2016 BABIP: .186
Career BABIP: .318
BABIP Difference: .132

When youth hitting instructors try to instill the basics of a sound plate approach to their pupils, they always emphasize line drives. That's because screaming liners are the most effective way to get a base hit, often powerful enough to launch past infielders and quick enough to land on the ground rather than inside an outfielder's glove. As you might expect, line-drive rates exhibit somewhat of a positive correlation with BABIP.

Well, Tulowitzki has the worst line-drive rate (6.6%) of any qualified hitter this season. There's clearly something amiss with the star shortstop, who's striking out more than ever in 2016 and doesn't have a hit against left-handed pitchers in 18 at-bats.

With all that said, it might seem disingenuous to merely call Tulowitzki unlucky. But the fact of the matter is that like Seager, Tulo has managed to make five of his 15 hits this season leave the ballpark altogether. Even though the 31-year-old is certainly in some sort of decline from his heyday, he's not as bad as his surface-level stats with Toronto indicate.

3. Corey Dickerson, Rays

2016 BABIP: .204
Career BABIP: .337
BABIP Difference: .133

Like Tulowitzki, Dickerson hasn't been producing the sort of hard contact that leads to tougher assignments for fielders, and thus, a higher BABIP. His 9.3 percent line-drive rate ranks third-to-last in the Majors among 196 qualified hitters.

Though Dickerson has himself to blame for that, his performance against right-handed pitchers has largely aligned with his career splits there. It's the lefty's dreadful showing against fellow southpaws that's weighing down his overall numbers.

Dickerson is 1-for-15 with three strikeouts (.083 BABIP) against left-handers. He's hitting better when opponents employ the shift against him, proving he can adjust his approach as he grows more comfortable with life away from Coors Field, now that he's in the AL. If Tampa Bay's offseason acquisition can simply get back to a mediocre level against left-handers (career .640 OPS against lefties), he'll be in decent shape.

2. Chase Headley, Yankees

2016 BABIP: .192
Career BABIP: .327
BABIP Difference: .135

You could get away with labeling Headley a slugger somewhat recently, following his Silver Slugger campaign back in 2012. If you approach a Yankees fan today and refer to Headley as a slugger, they'd either assume you were antagonizing them or had just emerged from a time machine.

That's because 21 games into the season, Headley still hasn't mustered an extra-base hit. Dating back to last season, Headley has gone 89 at-bats without getting past first base on his own accord. His .147 slugging percentage is the worst in MLB by 57 percentage points. He hasn't slugged above .400 since that breakout 2012 campaign, which looks more like an anomaly with each passing day.

All this is to say that Headley isn't the sort of plodding basher that BABIP typically punishes, since those guys can't leg out infield hits while a high amount of homers decreases the pool of balls hit in play. Despite a knee injury suffered in 2013, Headley is actually quite mobile for a 31-year-old third baseman, already stealing three bases this season. His line-drive and strikeout rates are almost perfectly in line with his career averages, according to Fangraphs.

And yet, here he is, stuck in a nightmarish season largely predicated by bad luck. It's a sentiment Yankees coaches have echoed, yet one that isn't satisfying the ravenous media corps and fan base the franchise must answer to. Some are calling for 5-foot-7 utility infielder Ronald Torreyes to spell Headley at third, half-jokingly suggesting he could provide more power.

Headley can only hope better BABIP luck will come before he's eaten up in the Big Apple.

1. Chris Coghlan, A's

2016 BABIP: .151
Career BABIP: .310
BABIP Difference: .159

Chris Coghlan lives and dies by the whims of the BABIP gods. When he pleases them, the scrappy utility man can provide quite a bit of value, as the former Marlin did while leading the Majors in hits and batting average after the 2009 All-Star Break to win Rookie of the Year.

But when Coghlan does something to upset the powers that be, the results can turn really ugly. That's been the case so far this year, whether he's lined into a double play or had a home run robbed by Justin Upton.

Coghlan currently ranks dead last in the Majors with a .151 BABIP. He's cratered like this before in 2012, as the above visualization shows. Back then, the newly renamed Miami Marlins were under pressure to win immediately after a flurry of flashy offseason moves. They sent Coghlan down to Triple-A after he hit .121 with a .299 OPS in April. Things didn't get much better when he earned another month-long call-up later on that season.

The 30-year-old evidently has a longer leash this year with Oakland, where his defensive versatility is valued. The A's would be wise to continue exhibiting patience, since Coghlan's peripherals indicate a change in fortune is nigh.

That might not make Coghlan's current struggles any easier to swallow for A's fans. But they can take solace in the old saying that the darkest hour comes before the dawn -- and right now, Coghlan's luck at the dish couldn't be much worse.

 

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